Tanzania has attracted a number of our clients, having had relative political stability since introducing multi-party politics in 1992. Tanzania’s tourism and natural gas sectors are looking hot for investment opportunities over the coming years. The country’s business environment could become significantly more attractive, with more deregulation of state-controlled sectors, along with a reduction in red tape.

We ensure our clients make sound business decisions in Tanzania, using our risk-assessed total analysis model. Our research teams keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Our expert views are supported by our interactive data and forecasting. We also provide in-depth analysis on 11 of Tanzania’s most important industries. Our expert insight will help you to tackle Tanzania with ease.

Country Risk

Tanzania Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Uncertainty will characterise Tanzania's political climate over the coming months as the general election on October 25 approaches. We believe key investment decisions - particularly in the energy sector - are likely to be delayed until the dust from the election has settled and policy direction becomes clearer.

  • Economic growth in Tanzania will soften in 2015 as October's general elections and continued policy uncertainty in the energy sector weigh on investment. We are forecasting real GDP to expand by 6.4% in 2015 compared to 6.9% in 2014.

  • Tanzania will undergo a modest improvement in its external position over the next two years as lower oil prices help to reduce the country's hefty imported fuel bill. Despite this short term adjustment, high import demand and sluggish growth in exports will see the...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tanzania Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Tanzania Operational Risk

BMI View:

Tanzania is characterised by a generally low level of operational risk, highlighting the importance of its maritime connectivity, the high availability of labour, and a diversity of trade and economic opportunities. Key advantages include the largest working age population in employment in the region, one of the continent's most well-connected port systems, and a flourishing trade and investment environment. Other assets include moderately low labour costs, high primary school education rates, and a wealth of natural gas reserves, though production will not start until 2023.

Tanzania offers investors and businesses a variety of advantages and disadvantages within its logistics capabilities. Due to its strategic location, Tanzania's transport system serves as an important link in regional trade, enabling landlocked neighbours to access maritime trade routes through Tanzania. Within this, firms benefit from a competitive and...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tanzania Crime & Security

BMI View:

Tanzania's most significant security threat stems from its high crime rates and its corrupt and inadequate police force. While petty crime occurs most frequently, businesses face an increased risk of violent crime, as well as cybercrime and maritime piracy. The threat of domestic terrorism remains limited; however, regional terrorist groups have conducted a number of notable attacks in East Africa in the last few years, exposing businesses to the potential for significant property damage and injury to or loss of personnel. Tanzania's interstate security risks present the lowest level of risk. With a low likelihood of outright conflict and relatively good military capabilities, firms face limited potential for disruptions in their operating environment. Consequently BMI awards Tanzania a score of 37.3 for Crime and Security Risk, placing it 20th regionally, behind East African states Ethiopia (16th) and Rwanda (17th).

...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tanzania Labour Market

BMI View:

With one of the most competitive labour markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Tanzania offers a low level of labour risk to investors and businesses. Benefits include flexibility in hiring and firing workers, a high percentage of working-age citizens and women employed in the workforce, and one of the highest primary education net enrolment rates in Africa. However, businesses face a moderate level of risk in the country's educational sector. Despite rapid growth in enrolment rates as well as educational facilities, a scarcity of state funding has constrained the development of secondary and tertiary education, resulting in a limited supply of high-skilled and technical labourers. As a result of these factors, BMI has awarded Tanzania a score of 47.0 out of 100 for Labour Risk, ranking the country eighth regionally.

Although Tanzania has experienced significant growth in the country's secondary and...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tanzania Logistics

BMI View:

The greatest risk to investors in Tanzania stems from the country's underperforming transport network, which is preventing the country from fulfilling its role as a gateway for regional trade in East Africa and creating supply chain delays for Tanzania's importers and exporters. While a number of significant projects are under way to improve the existing network, investors in the short term will face port congestion, increasing the cost of imports and exports, and a poor quality of transport infrastructure in internal networks. These factors contribute to the country's uncompetitive score of just 24.2 out of 100 for Transport Network, ranking the country 35th out of 48 countries. This represents the country's lowest score and regional ranking in the BMI Logistics Risk Index.

Tanzania's utilities sector still reflects its status as a developing country, with water shortages,...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tanzania Trade & Investment

BMI View:

BMI View: Tanzania offers a number of strategic advantages to investors and businesses, including a relatively low level of legal risk, a declining level of government intervention and increasing economic openness. However, firms continue to face challenges in the form of non-tariff trade barriers, widespread corruption and difficulty competing with public sector firms in key economic sectors. As a result, Tanzania receives a score of 36.2 out of 100 for Trade and Investment Risk, ranking 21st regionally after neighbouring Zambia (sixth), Rwanda (ninth), Uganda (12th) and Kenya (16th).

Businesses face the highest degree of trade and investment risk from the Government Intervention pillar, which highlights the limitations of the country...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Tanzania Industry Coverage (13)

Agribusiness

Tanzania Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View: We continue to favour the Tanzanian coffee industry over the medium term, owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter. The country's sugar sector will see limited production growth over the next few years, due to low sugar prices and Tanzania's lower productivity than many of its regional neighbours.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Autos

Tanzania Autos

BMI View:

We are revising down our forecast for 2015 to a decline of 51.0% to 3,450 units as momentum from the country's strong sales performance in 2014 is dissipated by significant depreciation in the Tanzanian shilling raising the price of imported vehicles. Past 2015, we predict steady growth in new light vehicle sales from 2016 to 2019, averaging 22.8%.

However, we stress that owing to the markets erratic growth and declines, low numbers of total sales, and limited availability of data these numbers may be subject to revision over 2015. Furthermore, even with the double digit growth in new light vehicle sales through to 2019, we believe that, by 2019, only 7,641 new light vehicles will be sold in the country annually. When compared with a population of some 49.3mn, it is clear that new cars will remain unaffordable to the vast majority of Tanzanians for many years. Instead, used cars will continue to be the more significant market.

...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Commercial Banking

Tanzania Commercial Banking

BMI View:

...
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Food & Drink

Tanzania Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: Private consumption will be the main driver of economic expansion in 2015 and 2016, contributing 4.3 percentage points to headline growth in each year. As in much of the region, the collapse in oil prices is already being reflected in Tanzania through lower fuel costs, which will contribute to lower inflation in 2015, strengthening consumer purchasing power. The upshot of falling fuel costs will mean more cash in consumers' pockets, which should translate into increased spending on other goods and services. In addition to benefitting from increased consumer spending power, consumer-focused companies will see their own transport costs reduced.

Headline...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Freight Transport

Tanzania Freight Transport

BMI View:

BMI View: We forecast positive growth across Tanzania's freight modes in 2015 and 2016, and over our medium-term forecast period to 2019. Much of this growth - in air and rail freight in particular - is coming from a low base, and will pick up in line with the robust expansion we expect in Tanzania's economy, which is riding on a natural gas development boom. Our positive long term outlook for Tanzania's prospects is supported by the extensive development of the country's wider transport infrastructure. The Tanzanian government plans to float a USD1bn eurobond for FY15/16. The proceeds will be used to finance the country's mega infrastructure projects. According to Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Saada Mkuyu, the government is fully prepared...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Infrastructure

Tanzania Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: Tanzania's construction and infrastructure sector outlook is buoyant over our 10-year forecast period to 2024, although we expect 2015 to present a number of challenges to investment and have dropped our real growth forecasts accordingly - from 9.9% to 7.9%. Broad investor sentiment will be boosted by USD500mn in foreign budget support - withheld following a power sector scandal in late 2014. In the long-term, regional transport development and power sector projects will be key growth drivers.

There are number of key developments, which underpin our upbeat medium-term forecast scenario:

The Tanzanian government plans to float a USD1bn eurobond for FY15/16. The proceeds will be used to finance the country's mega infrastructure projects. According to Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Saada Mkuyu, the government is fully prepared to float the...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Insurance

Tanzania Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: The Tanzanian insurance sector should record solid growth over 2015 and the forecast period with total gross written premiums set to reach USD332mn in 2015, growing by 2% over 2014 levels, and over 12% in local currency terms. This growth will be largely centred on basic, non-life lines such as health and motor, particularly given that the segment is already dominated by non-life insurance which accounts for almost 90% of total insurance premiums in the country. Looking ahead, a key market driver will remain the country's wider macroeconomic performance; as oil prices drop, consumers will benefit from increased purchasing power which is set to boost the overall segment - especially health insurance which shows the greatest promise over the next five to ten years, growing by around 16% annually in local currency terms. For now we do not anticipate any significant growth in the short term for the life segment in Tanzania,...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Mining

Tanzania Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: Tanzania's mining sector growth will contract due to weak global mineral prices, which will discourage production growth over coming years. Beyond our forecast period to 2019, the country's mining sector could diversify as various miners are looking to invest in the country's nickel, coal and uranium resources.

Although Tanzania holds vast deposits of coal, cobalt, copper, diamonds, gold, nickel, silver and uranium, we forecast the country's mining sector will contract over 2015-2019. Weak gold prices will halt gold production growth and delay or halt new projects from coming online altogether. Despite this, the Tanzania's mining industry will remain relatively significant in regional terms as the country is currently Africa's fourth-largest producer of gold and continues to produce growing numbers of diamonds. In...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Oil & Gas

Tanzania Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: Tanzania has significant potential, with a vast gas resource base and continued exploration. However, despite passage of the new Petroleum Act, significant fiscal and regulatory uncertainties remain, threatening to slow the pace of exploration and development. Further delay to FID on the Tanzania LNG project could push first gas exports outside our 10-year forecast period. Plans for major downstream expansions domestically will also be slow to progress, given the small size of the domestic gas market and the lack of offtake infrastructure and industries.

...
Headline Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Tanzania Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Tanzania's pharmaceutical sector will continue to be dominated by generic drugmakers, largely those from India. Although government encouragement of domestic pharmaceutical production will increase domestic output, the majority of the country's pharmaceutical needs will remain sourced from abroad.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: TZS797bn (USD479mn) in 2014 to an expected TZS909bn (USD496mn) in 2015; +14.0% growth in local currency terms and +3.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q315.

  • Healthcare: TZS4,403bn (USD2.65bn) in 2014 to TZ4,845bn (USD2.65bn) in 2015; +10.1% growth in local...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Power

Tanzania Power

BMI View:

BMI View: We expect to see robust and sustained growth in Tanzania's power sector over our ten-year forecast period to 2024. A number of projects are expected to come online, including large capacity gas-fired power plants, which will expand total generation. Moves to open the sector to foreign and private investment have gathered pace and we are seeing more foreign companies involved in the development generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Tanzania. The country also attracts funding from a large number of international financing bodies, supporting growth. We do note, however, that barriers to growth remain, including the dominance of state-owned utilities and a lack of transparency in the...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Shipping

Tanzania Shipping

BMI View:

BMI View: Tanzania will continue to benefit from its location as a gateway for the East Africa Community (EAC). The merits of its location can be seen in the consistent upwards trajectory of container and bulk throughput at the port of Dar es Salaam. The development of the offshore gas sector in the coming years will boost both bulk and container volumes through the country's ports, thanks to an inflow of capital goods and increased wealth driving up imports of containerised consumer goods.

Tanzania, along with its East African peers, will reap the benefits of lower oil prices over the coming months. The latest inflation data confirm that the collapse in Brent crude prices is already being reflected in lower pump prices, easing inflationary pressures and more disposable income for consumers. Consumers will also benefit from a 200 basis point cut in the reserve...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Telecommunications

Tanzania Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: The Tanzanian mobile market rebounded in 2015, as its 2013 performance was negatively impacted by sim registration and removal of inactive accounts. Given that penetration is relatively low, there is still room for significant growth. Viettel 's entry into the market scheduled for October 2015, with a focus on rural areas will drive growth and competition further. Current operators scramble to match the new entrant, they look to differentiate themselves with better services. MFS (mobile financial services) will be one of these, as Tanzania becomes the first fully interoperable country. Mobile data will continue to grow through 3G and 4G networks. The fixed broadband market will see growth, especially as the TTCL long-term...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Latest Tanzania Articles

  • Oil prices will remain anchored until 2018. The return of Iranian oil to ma...

  • China's equity crash is far from over, and is likely to expose the weak und...

  • India will pursue a three-pronged strategy of securing its eastern flank wh...

Latest Tanzania Blogs

Latest Tanzania Podcasts

  • Huge media attention and investment has made Sub-Saharan Africa's tele...

  • Electrification rates in Sub-Saharan Africa are the lowest in the worl...

  • Africa's telecommunications sector has grown by leaps and bounds in re...