Tajikistan

In-depth country-focused analysis on Tajikistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Tajikistan

Our comprehensive assessment of Tajikistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Tajikistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Tajikistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Tajikistan before your competitors.

Country Risk

Tajikistan Country Risk

BMI View:

CORE VIEWS

  • The Kazakh economy is past the worst, with a rebound in oil prices offering support for the tenge, mitigating inflationary pressures, and allowing for monetary policy easing in the coming months.

  • Kyrgyzstan's economy will struggle to recover in the coming quarters despite the gradual rebound in commodity prices, which will materialise over this period. Regulatory and political uncertainty, subdued remittances from Russia, and weak external demand will keep a lid on the country's recovery.

  • Economic conditions in Tajikistan will continue to deteriorate despite a gradual rebound in commodity prices in the coming quarters. While a credit line arrangement with the International Monetary Fund will help the country avoid a balance of payments crisis, this will come at the expense of huge costs to the economy.

  • ...

Tajikistan Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Tajikistan Operational Risk

BMI View:

BMI View: Tajikistan's labour market makes the country a very unattractive location for most industries other than those requiring unskilled labour. The education system has suffered from war damage, underfunding and overcrowding since the break from the Soviet Union in 1991, stunting educational outcomes for students over the last two decades. In addition, vocational skills are severely lacking as the most common form of employment is in the low-skilled and largely informal agricultural sector. Consequently, training costs for Tajikistani employees in formal roles will be considerable, and this will add to already significant employment costs investors will face, such as social security contributions and worker benefits. Due to these considerations, Tajikistan scores 53.4 out of 100 for Labour Market...

Tajikistan Crime & Security

BMI View:

BMI View: The most pertinent security risk in Tajikistan emanate from growing support for pro-Islamic movements and extremist Islamic terrorist groups amongst the Tajik youth, due to poor economic conditions and heightened radicalisation. Further risks also stem from international disputes with neighbouring countries as well as high levels of financial crime, organised criminal activities and state corruption. These threats to businesses and investor operation are further compounded by the limited capabilities of the Tajik counter terrorism forces, army, and police force. This combination of crime and security risks makes Tajikistan an unattractive operating environment for businesses and investors. Consequently, the country scores a low 36 out of 100 on the Crime and Security Risk pillar of the BMI Operational Risk Index...

Tajikistan Labour Market

BMI View:

The main labour market benefits to investors in Tajikistan are high literacy rates among the working population and a high employment rate for people of working age. However, Tajikistan suffers from an absence of skilled workers, as a large percentage of the country's GDP stems from the agriculture sector. A lack of quality tertiary education, no universities in the top 400, a low life expectancy and restrictive visa policies all pose potential risks to investors. Tajikistan's overall Labour Market Risk score is 49.8 out 100, placing the country 24 th out of 30 countries in the emerging Europe region, behind Serbia at 51.9 and just ahead of Macedonia at 48.5. Regional leader Cyprus scores 67.2, followed by the Czech Republic, which scores 66.8.

Tajikistan has a young and rapidly growing population, meaning the country's labour pool will be populated with relatively inexpensive workers. Along with a regionally competitive rate of...

Tajikistan Logistics

BMI View:

B MI View: Tajikistan's logistics network presents major risk for investors, driven by an extremely cumbersome and costly trading process. Utilities in Tajikistan are cheap, but supply is unreliable and businesses often face power cuts. The risk of electricity and fuel shortages is heightened by Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower for its power consumption and on neighbouring countries for fuel. In addition, poor internet penetration by regional standards significantly limits business operations. Taking all these factors into account, we give Tajikistan a score of 30.2 out of 100 in our Logistics Risk Index, ranking the country last out of 31 states in Emerging Europe....

Tajikistan Trade & Investment

BMI View:

Tajikistan exhibits low levels of economic openness in relation to its business environment, with poor rates of foreign investment inhibiting the amount of capital available to investors. It is also at risk in terms of the level and type of imports and exports; regionally Tajikistan has the lowest level of exports as a percentage of GDP, primarily consisting of goods rather than services. In BMI's Trade and Investment Risk Index, Tajikistan ranks last of 30 countries in emerging Europe, with a score of 38.1. This places it 119 th globally out of 170 countries.

With limited access to international financial markets and only a small number of listed companies, Tajikistan is a very underdeveloped economy, although regionally its capital and financial accounts are among the highest. There is a general lack of confidence in the financial sector, and this has lead to a lack of banking activity in Tajikistan,...

Tajikistan Industry Coverage (4)

Defence & Security

Tajikistan Defence & Security

BMI View:

BMI View: Kazakhstan's determination to develop a solid domestic defence manufacturing base has been exemplified in its strong push to setting up numerous joint ventures and partnerships with key foreign industry players as well as its efforts to organise its own international exhibition of weapons and military equipment - KADEX. With a somewhat unstable regional environment, Kazakhstan will see to its defence expenditure being increased over our forecast period in an effort to be ready to combat any potential breaches in security. However, BMI believes that if it is to truly excel in this field and achieve its goal of creating a strong...

Power

Tajikistan Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Gas-fired power will remain the dominant source of electricity in Uzbekistan as strong domestic gas production, limited gas export outlets and modernisation of ageing gas-fired power generating capacity will slow efforts to diversify the power mix. Economic headwinds will further weigh on power sector expansion, as plummeting prices for gold, cotton and copper will shrink export revenues significantly - representing a pertinent obstacle to an uptick in government-backed investment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central Asia, as Uzbekistan strongly opposes developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative...

Tajikistan Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Tajikistan will rely overwhelmingly on hydroelectric power generation during our 10-year forecast period, but will suffer from power generation shortfalls over the next decade, due to headwinds to diversification into other sectors, notably gas. The deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop - with China slowing down, Russia experiencing poor economic performance and commodity prices falling - underscores our muted view this quarter.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The devaluation of the Kazakh tenge puts pressure on the currencies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In particular, the Kyrgyz and Tajik economies are likely to suffer the most, as they rely heavily on remittances from Kazakhstan and a poorly performing Russia.

  • The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani...

Telecommunications

Tajikistan Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Central Asian telecommunications market as a whole. There are some growth opportunities in the region, particularly with regard to 3G and 4G technology Uptake. Nevertheless, state interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the course of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned MegaCom and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better...

Latest Tajikistan Articles

×

Download PDF

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.