Tajikistan

In-depth country-focused analysis on Tajikistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Tajikistan

Our comprehensive assessment of Tajikistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Tajikistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Tajikistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Tajikistan before your competitors.

Country Risk

Tajikistan Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • The Kazakh government will prioritise aid to state companies over households in its policy response to declining public revenues from lower oil prices. Nevertheless, the pace of fiscal consolidation will fall short of eroding living standards to the extent that they destabilise the regime of President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

  • The collapse of Prime Minister Djoomart Otorbayev's cabinet in April has heightened regulatory and political uncertainty, casting a dark cloud on the country's mining sector and foreign direct investment outlook. A worsening balance of payments outlook will further ramp up downside pressure on the Kyrgyz som, which is already under pressure from weakening remittance inflows, further stoking inflation.

  • Severe summer flooding has already darkened the already subdued real GDP growth outlook for...

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Tajikistan Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Tajikistan Operational Risk

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BMI View: Tajikistan's business environment is unattractive, with poor rates of foreign investment inhibiting the amount of capital available to investors. The country has a very low level of exports as a percentage of GDP, primarily consisting of goods rather than services, a further deterrent to investors. In addition, high levels of corruption and red tape increase overall operating costs. In BMI 's Trade and Investment Risk Index, Tajikistan ranks last of 31countries in Emerging Europe, with a score of 40.7 out of 100. This places it 136th globally out of 201 ...

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Tajikistan Crime & Security

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BMI View: Businesses and foreign workers in Tajikistan are exposed to a multiplicity of security risks from crime, terrorist activity, and the potential for interstate conflict. The most common threat to foreigners stems from becoming a victim of petty crime, however the country's porous borders with Afghanistan mean that the risk of terrorist activity spilling over into Tajikistan is also high. Additionally, Dushanbe is involved in several regional disputes which have the potential to become major flashpoints for interstate conflict over the medium to long term, including a territorial quarrel and a potential for conflict over water resources. These considerable security threats result in Tajikistan's low score of 16.0 out of 100 in the overall BMI Crime and Security Risk Index, which places the country last out of 31 states in the Emerging Europe region....

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Tajikistan Labour Market

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The main labour market benefits to investors in Tajikistan are high literacy rates among the working population and a high employment rate for people of working age. However, Tajikistan suffers from an absence of skilled workers, as a large percentage of the country's GDP stems from the agriculture sector. A lack of quality tertiary education, no universities in the top 400, a low life expectancy and restrictive visa policies all pose potential risks to investors. Tajikistan's overall Labour Market Risk score is 49.8 out 100, placing the country 24 th out of 30 countries in the emerging Europe region, behind Serbia at 51.9 and just ahead of Macedonia at 48.5. Regional leader Cyprus scores 67.2, followed by the Czech Republic, which scores 66.8.

Tajikistan has a young and rapidly growing population, meaning the country's labour pool will be populated with relatively inexpensive workers. Along with a regionally competitive rate of...

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Tajikistan Logistics

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BMI View: Tajikistan's logistics network presents major risk for investors, driven by an extremely cumbersome and costly trading process. Utilities in Tajikistan are cheap, but supply is unreliable and businesses often face power cuts. The risk of electricity and fuel shortages is heightened by Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower for its power consumption and on neighbouring countries for fuel. In addition, poor internet penetration by regional standards significantly limits business operations. Taking all these factors into account, we give Tajikistan a score of 30.2 out of 100 in our Logistics Risk Index, ranking the country last out of 31 states in Emerging Europe.

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Tajikistan Trade & Investment

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Tajikistan exhibits low levels of economic openness in relation to its business environment, with poor rates of foreign investment inhibiting the amount of capital available to investors. It is also at risk in terms of the level and type of imports and exports; regionally Tajikistan has the lowest level of exports as a percentage of GDP, primarily consisting of goods rather than services. In BMI's Trade and Investment Risk Index, Tajikistan ranks last of 30 countries in emerging Europe, with a score of 38.1. This places it 119 th globally out of 170 countries.

With limited access to international financial markets and only a small number of listed companies, Tajikistan is a very underdeveloped economy, although regionally its capital and financial accounts are among the highest. There is a general lack of confidence in the financial sector, and this has lead to a lack of banking activity in Tajikistan,...

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Tajikistan Industry Coverage (2)

Defence & Security

Tajikistan Defence & Security

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BMI View: Kazakhstan's determination to develop a solid domestic defence manufacturing base has been exemplified in its strong push to setting up numerous joint ventures and partnerships with key foreign industry players as well as its efforts to organise its own international exhibition of weapons and military equipment - KADEX. With a somewhat unstable regional environment, Kazakhstan will see to its defence expenditure being increased over our forecast period in an effort to be ready to combat any potential breaches in security. However, BMI believes that if it is to truly excel in this field and achieve its goal of creating a strong...

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Telecommunications

Tajikistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: State interference and political risk remains the most important risk of doing business in the Central Asian region. This was again amplified as government involvement became a key theme over the first six months of 2015. In Turkmenistan, a new state-owned company was created to spur competition, in Kyrgyzstan, state-owned Kyrgyz Mobile Company was sold to state-owned Mega C om and in Uzbekistan, state-owned Uzmobile launched a GSM network to better compete in the mobile market. This therefore does not appear to be a risk that is going to end in the short or long term. Kazakhstan is the most attractive of the region and its ascension to the WTO in June 2015 should lead to wide-...

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