Our comprehensive assessment of Syria's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Syria, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Syria's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Syria before your competitors.
Syria Country Risk
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's is unlikely to regain full control of the country, but has consolidated his control across a belt of territory stretching from the port cities of Tartous and Latakia in north-western Syria, through Homs in the centre of the country to the capital Damascus in the south-west. Jihadist group Islamic State (IS) has gained significant ground since 2014, and currently holds approximately a third of the country's territory.
Our core scenario sees the civil war continuing for many years, ending in a partition of Syria along sectarian lines - either as the outcome of a negotiated settlement between the warring parties, or through an extended stalemate and de facto break-up of the country. An outright victory by either the Assad regime (actively backed by Iran, Russia, and Lebanese Shi'a militant group Hizbullah),...
Syria Industry Coverage (2)
BMI retains a negative near-term view on the new vehicle sales outlook for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. This reflects the deteriorating regional economic and political situation. We are now targeting falls in auto sales for all three countries over 2015.
Starting with Jordan, BMI retains a downbeat stance towards new vehicle sales this quarter, as we feel that the growing threat to the Kingdom's borders from ongoing attacks from Islamic State (IS) insurgents more than outweighs what is a reasonably propitious domestic macroeconomic backdrop.
According to an April 2015 report by the Associated Press (AP), ongoing border violence has led to the closure of the sole Syria-Jordan trade crossing, effectively paralysing its overland trade routes. The report also stated that Jordanian exports were already down by 17% y-o-y over the first two months of 2015, before the...
Defence & Security
Syria Defence & Security
BMI View: Syria remains embroiled in a full-scale civil war. Without any viable political process and in view of the number of armed groups operating in Syria, BMI does not foresee any let up in the violence soon. Our view is that while the anti-Islamic State coalition has made some strides, the long term effectiveness of this coalition to bring stability to Syria seems rather questionable.
Although the air-strikes carried out by the U.S. led anti-Islamic State coalition have hurt the group hard, we think that their long-term effectiveness is questionable without a longer term strategy on how to remove Assad and bring about a political transition. Without defining a clearer strategy to remove Assad, we think that the U.S. is leaving itself in a dangerous position...