Syria

In-depth country-focused analysis on Syria's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Syria

Our comprehensive assessment of Syria's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Syria, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Syria's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Syria before your competitors.

Country Risk

Syria Country Risk

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Core Views

  • The ongoing civil war in Syria is having severe repercussions on the Lebanese economy. Lebanon's medium-term growth trajectory will settle well below pre-crisis levels due to a lack of investment in transportation and energy infrastructure.

  • Despite fears over the economy's gaping external asymmetries, a loyal depositor base in the domestic banking sector, combined with a massive arsenal of foreign exchange reserves, should help bolster underlying stability through what will turn out as a prolonged period of political volatility. This will minimize the potential for an unexpected devaluation of the pound in 2016.

  • A protracted leadership vacuum, elevated sectarian tensions fuelled by entanglement in the Syrian civil war, and the risk of conflict with Israel will all continue to present challenges to Lebanon'...

Syria Industry Coverage (2)

Autos

Syria Autos

BMI View:

BMI retains a negative near-term view on the new vehicle sales outlook for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. This reflects the deteriorating regional economic and political situation. We are now targeting falls in auto sales for all three countries over 2015.

Starting with Jordan, BMI retains a downbeat stance towards new vehicle sales this quarter, as we feel that the growing threat to the Kingdom's borders from ongoing attacks from Islamic State (IS) insurgents more than outweighs what is a reasonably propitious domestic macroeconomic backdrop.

According to an April 2015 report by the Associated Press (AP), ongoing border violence has led to the closure of the sole Syria-Jordan trade crossing, effectively paralysing its overland trade routes. The report also stated that Jordanian exports were already down by 17% y-o-y over the first two months of 2015, before the...

Defence & Security

Syria Defence & Security

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BMI View: We forecast Syrian defence expenditure to expand only modestly over the next five years, given that the Syrian economy - and government revenues - have collapsed due to the civil war. As the country does not maintain a significant domestic defence industry (and investment into the development of local military manufacturing capabilities is unlikely to be forthcoming amid the ongoing war), we expect the government to remain wholly reliant on foreign allies for defence imports in coming years.

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Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (2015-2020)
2015e 2016f

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  • The rise of jihadist group Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq poses ...

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