Our comprehensive assessment of Syria's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Syria, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Syria's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Syria before your competitors.
Syria Country Risk
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's is unlikely to regain full control of the country, but has consolidated his control across a belt of territory stretching from the port cities of Tartous and Latakia in north-western Syria, through Homs in the centre of the country to the capital Damascus in the south-west. Jihadist group Islamic State (IS) has gained significant ground since 2014, and currently holds approximately a third of the country's territory.
Our core scenario sees the civil war continuing for many years, ending in a partition of Syria along sectarian lines - either as the outcome of a negotiated settlement between the warring parties, or through an extended stalemate and de facto break-up of the country. An outright victory by either the Assad regime (actively backed by Iran and Lebanese Shi'a militant group Hizbullah), or the...
Syria Industry Coverage (2)
Over the past quarter, BMI has become significantly more negative on the new vehicle sales outlook for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. This reflects the deteriorating regional economic and political situation. Of the three countries covered in this report, we believe that it is Lebanon which holds the strongest near-term growth potential, where we forecast 2% growth in new vehicle sales over 2015, despite the introduction of tougher rules on car loans introduced by the Banque du Liban.
Conversely, we are targeting a 4% fall in sales within Syria, to 4,800 units and a massive 15% slump in new car sales in Jordan, to 14,450 units. The main reason behind our more pessimistic near-term stance lies in the growing threat to Jordan's cross-border trade with Syria and Iraq caused by ongoing border attacks from Islamic State (IS) insurgents. According to an April 2015 report by the Associated Press, the violence has led to...
Defence & Security
Syria Defence & Security
BMI View: Syria remains embroiled in a full-scale civil war. Without any viable political process and in view of the number of armed groups operating in Syria, BMI does not foresee any let up in the violence soon. Our view is that while the anti-Islamic State coalition has made some strides, the long term effectiveness of this coalition to bring stability to Syria seems rather questionable.
Although the air-strikes carried out by the U.S. led anti-Islamic State coalition have hurt the group hard, we think that their long-term effectiveness is questionable without a longer term strategy on how to remove Assad and bring about a political transition. Without defining a clearer strategy to remove Assad, we think that the U.S. is leaving itself in a dangerous position...