Switzerland

In-depth country-focused analysis on Switzerland's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Switzerland

Our comprehensive assessment of Switzerland's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Switzerland, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Switzerland's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Switzerland before your competitors.

Country Risk

Switzerland Country Risk

BMI View:

Steady Growth Ahead

Core Views

  • Switzerland's growth trajectory over the medium term will be increasingly powered by consumer spending.

  • The government's robust fiscal position implies it will be able to step in and boost growth in the event that any external shock puts a sharp break on Swiss growth.

  • Although the Swiss National Bank's removed its CHF1.20/EUR floor on January 15, it will continue to intervene in FX markets in order to prevent excessive franc appreciation. Beyond the next several quarters, the franc will continue to gradually depreciate from overvalued levels.

  • A narrowing of Switzerland's large current account surplus will gather steam in 2016, but the surplus will remain sizeable over the coming years.

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Switzerland Industry Coverage (7)

Commercial Banking

Switzerland Commercial Banking

BMI View:

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

Infrastructure

Switzerland Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: Limited public investment in infrastructure, combined with a mature power sector and an already-extensive transport network, means that growth prospects in the Swiss construction sector remain subdued. While we do expect to see a slight uptick in fixed capital investment, supported by strong domestic consumption trends, and note that the country's rail network is set to benefit from a surge in domestic and regional investment, overall there are few other major infrastructure projects in the pipeline outside of the transport sector. As such we expect to see only low single-digit growth in construction industry value throughout the forecast period between 2016 and 2025.

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Insurance

Switzerland Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: We have a positive though sluggish outlook for both Switzerland's major life and non-life insurance segments. Although the country is signified by the strength and maturity of its markets, this implies also that premium growth is limited in the foreseeable future. The overall insurance sector will be driven primarily by non-life insurance, where total premiums are boosted by health insurance in particular - on the back of rising per-capita private healthcare spending.

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Headline Insurance Forecasts (Switzerland 2012-2019)
Indicator

Medical Devices

Switzerland Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI Industry View: We expect the Swiss medical device market to exhibit below average growth for the Western European region over the 2014-2019 period, with other medical devices and consumables registering the highest growth during this period. Further depreciation of the Swiss franc against the US dollar will be the main factor restricting growth in US dollar terms during the early part of the forecast period. Over the last 15...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Switzerland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Switzerland's epidemiological profile will continue to be attractive to manufacturers of medicines for non-communicable diseases. Despite the relative rapid uptake of innovative pharmaceuticals, the burden of chronic conditions will account for a large proportion of the total disease burden over the next 15 years. Like many other developed states, Switzerland is introducing cost-containment measures to restrict the commercial opportunities presented to drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CHF7.07bn (USD7.34bn) in 2015 to CHF7.07bn (USD6.88bn) in 2016; +0.08% in local currency terms and -6.3% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: CHF71.83bn (USD74.60bn) in 2015 to CHF73.40bn (USD71.40bn) in 2016; +2.2% growth in local...

Power

Switzerland Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Switzerland's power sector will see some changes over the forecast period as the country shifts the balance of the power mix away from nuclear power and concentrates upon expanding non-hydropower renewable energy. As a result, we expect to see continued investment across several renewable energy sectors, including wind, solar and biomass, as well as the upgrade and expansion of existing hydropower facilities. Growth will be relatively slow, as lower power prices and limited consumption growth will continue to dampen investor interest. However, the government's ambitious renewable energy targets and commitment to the closure of nuclear power plants mean we do expect to see more projects entering the pipeline during the forecast period to...

Telecommunications

Switzerland Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: The Swiss telecoms market takes advantage of high-income households and a willingness to pay to top services which drive ARPU, but the dominance of incumbent Swisscom remains a concern. Price-cutting has failed with operators, including the new entrant Salt Mobile, competing on services, but Swisscom continues to call the shots, as highlighted by its move for convergence to consolidate its leadership in a saturated market.

  • There were 10.75mn mobile subscribers in Switzerland as of Q215, a y-o-y growth of 0.7%. Swisscom continues to dominate the market with a share of over 60%.

  • The incumbent reported 1.3mn bundles, 10.5% of its overall customer base, with 278,000 quad-play customers.

  • The move towards convergence has helped the incumbent in the pay-TV market, catching up with market...

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