Our comprehensive assessment of Switzerland's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Switzerland, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Switzerland's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Switzerland before your competitors.
Switzerland Country Risk
Steady Growth Ahead
In the coming year, rising external and domestic headwinds will weigh on economic growth. These include a Brexit induced slowdown in regional trade and subsequent rise in political uncertainty, a weak short-term consumption outlook and rising risks surrounding the property market.
That said, the negative side effects of rapid Swiss franc appreciation in early 2015 have largely worn off with negligible lasting damage to the economy, and Switzerland is poised for stable real GDP growth over the medium term.
Switzerland's growth trajectory will be increasingly powered by consumer spending.
The government's robust fiscal position implies it will be able to step in and boost growth in the event that any external shock...
Switzerland Industry Coverage (7)
Switzerland Commercial Banking
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BMI View: The growth outlook for Switzerland's infrastructure sector remains muted this quarter, with a limited project pipeline reflecting the overall maturity of the market as well as the government's prudent spending policy. Transport infrastructure, in particular rail infrastructure, will remain the key source of growth as both government and regional funding drive forward a number of domestic and cross-border rail projects. Some upside risk is also presented by the power sector where we expect to see investment in new non-hydropower renewables capacity as nuclear power is phased out of the domestic energy mix.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Challenges in the power sector may deter some investors. The full liberalisation of the electricity...
BMI View: We have a positive though sluggish outlook for both Switzerland's major life and non-life insurance segments. Although the country is signified by the strength and maturity of its markets, this implies also that premium growth is limited in the foreseeable future. The overall insurance sector will be driven primarily by non-life insurance, where total premiums are boosted by health insurance in particular - on the back of rising per-capita private healthcare spending.
Switzerland Medical Devices
BMI Industry View: We expect the Swiss medical device market to exhibit below average growth for the Western European region over the 2014-2019 period, with other medical devices and consumables registering the highest growth during this period. Further depreciation of the Swiss franc against the US dollar will be the main factor restricting growth in US dollar terms during the early part of the forecast period. Over the last 15...
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Switzerland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Switzerland will remain amongst the wealthiest countries in the world in real GDP per capita terms, which together with an aging population and a preference for patented medicines, will keep pharmaceutical spending high. However, faced with growing healthcare costs, the Swiss government will to continue to enforce measures that restrict growth in medicine sales - including the roll-out of initiatives that enforce the cost effective pricing and rational prescribing of medicines.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: CHF7.07bn (USD7.34bn) in 2015 to CHF7.08bn (USD6.89bn) in 2016; +0.25% in local currency terms and -6.1% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: CHF73.68bn (USD76.55bn) in 2015 to CHF75.45bn (USD73.39bn) in 2016; +2.4% growth in...
BMI View: The balance of power is shifting in Switzerland, where the country has committed to phasing out nuclear power in favour of hydropower and non-hydro renewables over the coming years. The country's power infrastructure is already very well developed, with universal access to the grid and numerous cross-border connections to neighbouring states. Although well-developed, investments in modernisation and expansion of the grid continues and we are also seeing investment in new capacity - primarily wind and solar based - to compensate for nuclear power going offline. At present the project pipeline is relatively limited, however in light of ambitious renewable energy targets and a range of investor incentives we do expect to see more projects entering development over the course of the forecast period through to 2025.
BMI View: The Swiss telecoms market takes advantage of high-income households and a willingness to pay to top services which drive ARPU, but the dominance of incumbent Swisscom remains a concern. Price-cutting has failed with operators, including the new entrant Salt Mobile, competing on services, but Swisscom continues to call the shots, as highlighted by its move for convergence to consolidate its leadership in a saturated market.
There were 10.75mn mobile subscribers in Switzerland as of Q215, a y-o-y growth of 0.7%. Swisscom continues to dominate the market with a share of over 60%.
The incumbent reported 1.3mn bundles, 10.5% of its overall customer base, with 278,000 quad-play customers.
The move towards convergence has helped the incumbent in the pay-TV market, catching up with market...