Content type

Tepid Growth For South Sudan In 2023-2024, With Downside Risks

Country Risk / Sudan / Wed 18 Oct, 2023

Key View

  • We forecast that real GDP growth in South Sudan will accelerate slightly from 2.0% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024.
  • Rising domestic crude output and global oil prices will increase room for government spending ahead of elections currently due to be held by December 2024.
  • However, widespread inter-communal violence, rising inflation and
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South Sudanese Growth To Remain Oil-Dependent

Country Risk / Sudan / Thu 20 Jul, 2023

Key View

  • We forecast that South Sudan’s real GDP will expand by 2.4% in 2023—a modest recovery given that the economy has been in recession since 2020.
  • The improvement in economic activity will be mainly driven by a rebound in oil exports. In contrast, investment and public consumption will remain weak, constraining domestic demand.
  • In
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Weak Economic Recovery For South Sudan In 2023

Country Risk / Sudan / Wed 12 Oct, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that South Sudan’s real GDP will expand by a modest 1.5% in 2022, as oil exports fall but higher global oil prices boost government revenues and spending.
  • We expect that real GDP growth will then accelerate to a still-weak 2.7% in 2023, as oil output recovers and public spending continues to rise.
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South Sudan Licensing Round Critical To Reversing Fortunes Upstream

Oil & Gas / Sudan / Mon 13 Sep, 2021

Key View

  • South Sudan’s first licensing round is under way, with the government seeking bids on five blocks. Strong uptake of the blocks is critical, if the country is to reverse the longer-run declines in its oil output.
  • While it has a large and underdeveloped resource base, a high-risk investment climate and subdued global capex levels
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South Sudan Set For Another Year Of Recession

Country Risk / Sudan / Thu 22 Jul, 2021

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we have revised our 2021 forecast for South Sudan’s real GDP from 5.9% growth to a 1.1% contraction, after an estimated 6.7% decline in 2020.
  • We expect oil exports to continue falling over the remainder of 2021, keeping the economy in recession.
  • While higher oil prices will support fiscal revenues and
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Sudanese Economy To Barely Expand In 2021

Country Risk / Sudan / Mon 12 Jul, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our 2021 real GDP growth forecast for Sudan from 0.8% to 0.6%, reflecting the negative impact of soaring domestic prices.
  • Private consumption will remain weak in 2021, as inflation dampens purchasing power and Covid-19 restrictions hamper the recovery in consumer and business activity.
  • Imp
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