Our comprehensive assessment of South Sudan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect South Sudan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact South Sudan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in South Sudan before your competitors.
South Sudan Country Risk
Tight fiscal and monetary policy stance have brought a degree of stability to the Sudanese economy following the painful split from South Sudan. That said, we believe the economy will continue to feel the lasting effects of this painful adjustment for the foreseeable future as the country's hostile political and investment climate preclude a meaningful economic revival.
South Sudan's August peace deal continues to hold, and was most recently reaffirmed with the April 29 formation of a unity government. However, the political scene will remain highly unstable, owing to disagreements over the formation of new states, continued instances of violence and severe economic challenges, not least skyrocketing inflation.
Despite a tentative improvement on the political front, South Sudan's...
South Sudan Industry Coverage (7)
South Sudan Autos
BMI View: High levels of inflation will drag on vehicle sales as consumers delay big-ticket purchases such as new vehicles. The threat of political and civil unrest will deter new investment into domestic vehicle production keeping the market reliant on the import market.
|New Vehicle Sales Remaining Muted|
|Passenger Vehicle Sales|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Renault Group, BMI|
New vehicle sales...
Defence & Security
South Sudan Defence & Security
BMI View: Sudan is the third largest arms manufacturer in Africa, capable of producing a range of (primarily ground-based) military products. That said, the local defence industrial base remains underdeveloped, and research and development activities are limited. As such, the country will continue to rely on imports for the procurement of more technologically advanced equipment over our forecast period to 2025. The persistent risk of war with South Sudan, as well as threats posed by the conflict in Darfur and insurgency in the South...
Food & Drink
South Sudan Food & Drink
BMI View: We maintain our view that economic growth in Sudan will pick up modestly over the coming quarters, with real GDP set to expand by 3.7% in 2015 and 4.3% in 2016 (from an estimated 3.0% in 2014). This improvement is in large part due to easing inflationary pressures as the high base effects associated with a painful currency devaluation in September 2013 wear off. Our forecast for a significant rise in per capita food consumption in 2015 is a result of very low current consumption and high inflation. However, the demographic profile of the countries, with their significant young population, will...
Oil & Gas
South Sudan Oil & Gas
BMI View: Above-ground factors will continue to be the main drags on the oil sector in both Sudan and South Sudan. Pervasive security threats, coupled by the sharp decline in global crude prices, are deterring investment in exploration and production, undermining long-term production growth. The downstream sector looks equally inhibited, due to prospectively low rates of return and limited appetite for investment among foreign firms.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Sudan is attempting to reduce its reliance on imported pharmaceuticals with government support. Despite an investment from an Egyptian drugmaker this quarter, the country will not achieve this goal in the near future given the current political environment.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SDG2.68bn (USD451mn) in 2014 to SDG3.00bn (USD491mn) in 2015; +12.1% in local currency terms and +8.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly upwards from Q415.
Healthcare: SDG24.03bn (USD4.05bn) in 2014 to SDG27.05bn (USD4.42bn) in 2015; +12.6% in local currency terms and +9.1% in US dollar terms. ...
South Sudan Power
BMI View: The Sudanese power sector will remain vulnerable to both droughts and funding cuts. A focus on investing in hydropower generation, coupled with the risk of a cut in Saudi funding - after recent budget cuts - means that power generation growth in Sudan will remain subdued. A lack of investment into transmission infrastructure will dampen any potential increases in electrification rates.
South Sudan Telecommunications
BMI View: We maintain our view that Sudan saw significant mobile market growth in 2015 when compared to 2014 and 2013 due to weak consumer spending and limited infrastructure investments. Sudan will witness modest mobile subscriber growth out to 2020 reflecting ongoing economic woes in the country such as consumer confidence, inflation and currency volatility. We hold the opinion that South Sudan will undergo stronger growth despite the challenging security situation. Operators will continue to invest in building up their networks. Organic growth prospects in South Sudan are much higher than neighbouring Sudan in terms of mobile subscribers and we retain an optimistic outlook for the country.
|A Tale Of Two Sudans|