Our comprehensive assessment of South Sudan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect South Sudan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact South Sudan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in South Sudan before your competitors.
South Sudan Country Risk
A more supportive inflationary environment and prudent fiscal and monetary policy will keep economic growth in Sudan stable and moderately paced over the coming quarters.
Facing rising political and economic pressures, Sudan's ruling National Congress Party will continue to engage in National Dialogue with its domestic foes and international mediators. That said, we expect talks to yield little, with an end to crippling economic sanctions or meaningful international debt relief both highly unlikely over the next 12 months.
In South Sudan, there growing evidence that the protracted nature of the civil conflict - which began in December 2013 - is leading to a hollowing out of state capacity and civil society and a breakdown of the formal economy.
Our negative outlook for the South...
South Sudan Industry Coverage (7)
South Sudan Autos
BMI View: We forecast growth of 5% in new passenger vehicle sales in 2016 as they recover from low base effects, however, growth in sales will remain well below their 2009 peak level of 12,298 reaching 4,474 units in 2020.
|New Vehicle Sales Remaining Muted|
|Passenger Vehicle Sales|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Renault Group, BMI|
Defence & Security
South Sudan Defence & Security
BMI View: Sudan boasts one of the region's largest defence sectors but still imports a significant volume of military equipment and services from Russia, China and Iran. Over the longer term, as the country's defence sector improves and it becomes more self sufficient, we expect there to be an increasing volume of defence exports, largely to the wider African region. A key driver behind the expansion of its military capabilities will remain the deteriorating situation in South Sudan and the ongoing violence between warring factions, opposition groups and government authorities. However, even though the country is looking for new export partners, we...
Food & Drink
South Sudan Food & Drink
BMI View: We maintain our view that economic growth in Sudan will pick up modestly over the coming quarters, with real GDP set to expand by 3.7% in 2015 and 4.3% in 2016 (from an estimated 3.0% in 2014). This improvement is in large part due to easing inflationary pressures as the high base effects associated with a painful currency devaluation in September 2013 wear off. Our forecast for a significant rise in per capita food consumption in 2015 is a result of very low current consumption and high inflation. However, the demographic profile of the countries, with their significant young population, will...
South Sudan Infrastructure
BMI View : Over our 10-year forecast period up to 2024 Sudan and South Sudan will experience subdued growth in their respective construction industries, owing to political and economic instability hampering their ability to attract the necessary foreign investment. Lower oil prices are also dampening growth prospects for the two nations, as both are heavily reliant on this commodity to support government spending.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
South Sudan and Sudan will experience subdued growth over our 10-year forecast period as political unrest remains a barrier to attracting significant foreign direct investment to address both nations' infrastructure deficits.
In Sudan, political risks and fears of a loss of control outside the capital...
Oil & Gas
South Sudan Oil & Gas
BMI View: Above-ground factors will continue to be the main drags on the oil sector in both Sudan and South Sudan. Pervasive security threats, coupled by the sharp decline in global crude prices, are deterring investment in exploration and production, undermining long-term production growth. The downstream sector looks equally inhibited, due to prospectively low rates of return and limited appetite for investment among foreign firms.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Sudan is attempting to reduce its reliance on imported pharmaceuticals with government support. Despite an investment from an Egyptian drugmaker this quarter, the country will not achieve this goal in the near future given the current political environment.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: SDG2.68bn (USD451mn) in 2014 to SDG3.00bn (USD491mn) in 2015; +12.1% in local currency terms and +8.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly upwards from Q415.
Healthcare: SDG24.03bn (USD4.05bn) in 2014 to SDG27.05bn (USD4.42bn) in 2015; +12.6% in local currency terms and +9.1% in US dollar terms. ...
South Sudan Power
BMI View: Sudanese hydropower will remain the dominant source of electricity up until 2024, with an average of 75% of generation coming from hydroelectric sources, increasing overall electricity generation to 23.9TWh in 2024.This will enable