South Sudan

In-depth country-focused analysis on South Sudan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

South Sudan

Our comprehensive assessment of South Sudan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect South Sudan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact South Sudan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in South Sudan before your competitors.

South Sudan Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • Sudan will see weak growth this year and next. Declining oil production in South Sudan and weakened consumer spending power will mitigate economic activity in the short term, whilst sanctions will restrain investment in the longer term.

  • South Sudan will remain vulnerable to significant political unrest over the coming months, after a recent outburst of violence in the capital Juba has tipped the country perilously close to returning to civil war. On July 7, members of the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (loyal to President Salva Kiir) and Vice President Riek Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition clashed in Juba.

  • Economic conditions in South Sudan will be extremely challenging in 2016 and 2017, as falling oil production hits exports hard and hyperinflation suppresses consumer...

South Sudan Industry Coverage (7)

South Sudan Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: High levels of inflation will drag on vehicle sales as consumers delay big-ticket purchases such as new vehicles. The threat of political and civil unrest will deter new investment into domestic vehicle production keeping the market reliant on the import market.

New Vehicle Sales Remaining Muted
Passenger Vehicle Sales
f = BMI forecast. Source: Renault Group, BMI

Key Views

  • New vehicle sales...

South Sudan Defence & Security

BMI View:

BMI View: Sudan is the third largest arms manufacturer in Africa, capable of producing a range of (primarily ground-based) military products. That said, the local defence industrial base remains underdeveloped, and research and development activities are limited. As such, the country will continue to rely on imports for the procurement of more technologically advanced equipment over our forecast period to 2025. The persistent risk of war with South Sudan, as well as threats posed by the conflict in Darfur and insurgency in the South...

South Sudan Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: We maintain our view that economic growth in Sudan will pick up modestly over the coming quarters, with real GDP set to expand by 3.7% in 2015 and 4.3% in 2016 (from an estimated 3.0% in 2014). This improvement is in large part due to easing inflationary pressures as the high base effects associated with a painful currency devaluation in September 2013 wear off. Our forecast for a significant rise in per capita food consumption in 2015 is a result of very low current consumption and high inflation. However, the demographic profile of the countries, with their significant young population, will...

South Sudan Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: Rising risk of a renewed civil conflict poses downside risk to our oil production forecast for South Sudan. While a renewed conflict is not our core view, we expect the political and security environment to remain highly fractured over the coming years, weighing on any recovery in output. The outlook for both Sudan and South Sudan is poor over the long term. A thin competitive landscape, lack of exploration and chronic underinvestment will combine with a maturing asset base and rapid natural decline rates to drag down on overall output. The downstream sector will see little activity in both markets, due to domestic fiscal pressures and a lack of foreign participation.

Headline Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2020)

South Sudan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Economic and political challenges will continue to undermine growth within Sudan and South Sudan's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. As such, political instability will remain a barrier to any significant investment in the sector, whilst disagreements about oil revenue sharing will affect both governments' abilities to fund new healthcare infrastructure projects. The governments' plans to improve domestic pharmaceutical manufacturer capabilities will attempt to reduce ongoing medicine shortages, however we do not expect self-sufficiency to be achieved over the short-to-medium term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • ...

South Sudan Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Sudanese hydropower will remain the dominant source of electricity up until 2024, with an average of 75% of generation coming from hydroelectric sources, increasing overall electricity generation to 23.9TWh in 2024.This will enable

Headline Power Forecasts (Sudan 2014-2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

South Sudan Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: In Q216, Zain announced it will buy 92.3% of Sudanese wireline operator Canar from Etisalat for USD95.2mn, subject to regulatory approval. The deal would consolidate Zain's presence in Sudan, where its 11.909mn mobile subscribers and Canar's 91,467 wireline subscriptions account for commanding market shares of 42.6% and 76.9% respectively. Although currency volatility has impaired telecoms investments in Sudan over the last 12 months, the country continues to be one of the strongest markets in Zain's footprint, and we believe the company is right to act on this market-deepening opportunity. However, the Bank of Khartoum has vetoed the deal and wishes to acquire the shares from Etisalat itself.

A Tale Of Two Sudans

Latest South Sudan Articles

Latest South Sudan Podcasts


Download PDF

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.