Content type

Serbian Economic Recovery To Continue As Consumers Rebound

Country Risk / Serbia / Tue 06 Feb, 2024

Key View

  • After better-than-expected performance of the Serbian economy in the second half of 2023, we are revising up our 2024 growth forecast from 2.5% to 3.0%.
  • The recovery in Serbian GDP will be consumption-led and monetary easing throughout much of the second half of 2024 should further support a relatively strong performance by the
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Serbian Interest Rate Hiking Cycle Likely Over

Country Risk / Serbia / Thu 06 Apr, 2023

Key View

  • We believe that the NBS's interest rate hiking cycle is now over and that the 25bps hike to 6.00% implemented in the April 6 policy setting meeting represents the final hike in the cycle.
  • Our view that interest rates will remain at present levels until at least end-2023 is driven by signs that both supply and demand side price
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Slower Hiking Cycle In Serbia As Inflation Peaks

Country Risk / Serbia / Thu 12 Jan, 2023

Key View

  • The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) hiked its policy rate by 25bps in its January 12 rate setting meeting. At Fitch Solutions, we expect the NBS to hike its key policy rate by just 25 basis points (bps) further in 2023, with the terminal rate now reaching 5.50% (6.00% previously) by the end of the year.
  • A flat December inflation
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Renewal Of Old Coalition Looms In Serbia

Country Risk / Serbia / Thu 28 Jul, 2022

Key View

  • The looming renewal of the Serbian Progressive Party - Socialist Party of Serbia coalition will ease political uncertainty in Serbia.
  • To reflect a drop in policy continuity and policy formation risks, we have revised the country’s Short-Term Political Risk Index score to 55.2, from 54.2 previously.
  • Meanwhile, the country’s
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National Bank Of Serbia To Remain In Tightening Mode

Country Risk / Serbia / Fri 13 May, 2022

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions expect the National Bank of Serbia to hike by a further 50bps in 2022, after having increased by 100bps over the past two meetings.
  • This means that we expect the key rate to end the year at 2.50%, though risks that the bank hikes more aggressively are tilted to the upside.
  • Inflationary pressures, fuelled
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