Portugal

In-depth country-focused analysis on Portugal's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Portugal

Our comprehensive assessment of Portugal's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Portugal, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Portugal's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Portugal before your competitors.

Country Risk

Portugal Country Risk

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Core Views

  • With general elections in Portugal scheduled for October 2015, we maintain that the centre-left main opposition Socialist Party is headed to win the ballot. However, it is unlikely to win full majority, it will likely form a coalition government with other leftist parties, meaning that the momentum behind Portugal's fiscal consolidation and structural reform efforts will wane in the coming years.

  • We have revised our real GDP growth forecast for Portugal to 1.4% from 1.2% previously, as the prospects for external demand have brightened this year. This is on the back of accelerating economic activity in the eurozone - Portugal's main trading and investment partner - with a broad range of leading economic indicators turning positive in Q115, including credit growth, confidence, retail sales and industrial production. Nevertheless, the structural...

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Portugal Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Portugal Medical Devices

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BMI Industry View: The Portuguese medical device market is the second smallest in Western Europe and per capita expenditure is low by regional standards. Most of the market is accountable to the public sector, which has implemented price cuts in order to contain public health expenditure. Market growth is expected to remain subdued, with low prices and lower volume purchases. Small and medium-sized companies have to deal with large debts owed by public hospitals.

Headline Industry Forecasts...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Portugal Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Despite the registered recovery in Portugal's economic indicators in recent quarters, substantial risks will remain to pharmaceutical firms that sell drugs in the country, especially due to delays in payments by public hospitals and high levels of public and private debt. The registered improvements in domestic demand, pharmaceutical exports and manufacturing indices will be partially counterbalanced by the slow progress in structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, offering a mixed outlook over the medium-term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

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Renewables

Portugal Renewables

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Growth in the Portuguese renewable energy market continues to be sluggish, with the country's embattled economy weighing on prospects in the power and renewables industries. The wind sector dominates the renewables mix, providing 25% of total generation, with biomass coming in second at 6.6%. We do not expect growth to pick up markedly as investor sentiment remains low and the renewables project pipeline is limited.

Portugal has been pursuing a green energy agenda since 2001, adopting the E4 Programme (Energy Efficiency and Endogenous Energies) in the same year. This set goals for renewable power generation, in line with the wider EU Directive on renewable energy. The target was set at achieving a 39% share of renewable energy sources for gross electricity consumption by 2010, and a 31% share of renewable energy sources for total energy consumption by 2020. However, Portugal...

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Telecommunications

Portugal Telecommunications

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BMI View : With the mature mobile market exhibiting volatile growth due to the dual effects of saturation and multi-service bundling and the high cost of fibre limiting the opportunities in the wireline broadband sector, the outlook for Portugal's telecoms industry is far from optimistic. That said, the sale of Portugal Telecom to Altice and the likely sale of the latter's surplus cable broadband units to Vodafone suggest that a change of strategy will emerge in the next 12-18 months. This will be a boon to the weak consumer market, but the surviving operators will need to be leaner and fitter to survive the changing market dynamics.

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