In-depth country-focused analysis on Portugal's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight


Our comprehensive assessment of Portugal's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Portugal, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Portugal's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Portugal before your competitors.

Country Risk

Portugal Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Portugal's rebound will remain on track in 2016 underpinned by fiscal expansion by the new Socialist government, and continued rebound in private consumption. However, growth will peak in 2016, and slow down in the coming years, as delayed structural reforms and high debt levels will impede Portugal's ability to develop its productive capacities and shift away from consumption dependence and towards production and export- oriented growth model.

  • While weeks of political stalemate following Portugal's October 4 general election ended with the Socialist Party being invited to form a minority government on November 24, political uncertainty will remain in play in the coming quarters. Reversal of austerity will result in the deterioration in Portuguese fiscal and debt metrics. While we expect a rise in the political risk premium, ECB backstops...

Portugal Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Portugal Medical Devices

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BMI View: The Portuguese medical device market will remain the second smallest in Western Europe, while per capita expenditure will be the lowest in the region. Market growth will remain subdued, with low prices and lower volume purchases. Small and medium-sized companies have to deal with large debts owed by public hospitals, despite increased investment intended to reduce this problem.

Projected Medical Device Market, 2014-2019
Total (USDmn) ...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Portugal Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Fiscal loosening by the newly-initiated Socialist-led government in Portugal and rising private consumption will benefit pharmaceutical sales in 2016. According to the latest data on market activity we have revised upwards our pharmaceutical market forecast, although operating challenges will remain due to high levels of debt in the public hospital sector. Meanwhile, with competitiveness to diminish due to the partial reversal of austerity measures, we do not see major room for Portuguese industrial sectors to become more attractive to investors in the near term, including the pharmaceutical sector. That said, long-term demand for healthcare due to an ageing population will keep translating into the need for access to medical...


Portugal Renewables

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BMI forecasts Portugal's economic recovery will continue during the period 2016-2024, but will remain unremarkable, registering GDP growth rates of 2.61% in 2017 and 1.07% by 2022, a substantial improvement on the 4% contraction the country experienced in 2012. Renewables investors will be encouraged by this, and by government progress on making early repayments on the loan it received from the IMF in 2011.

As indicated in BMI's previous Portugal Renewables Report, these developments are already bearing fruit, as shown by the upgrading of state utility Energias de Portugal (EDP) and state grid company Redes Energeticas Nacionais (REN)'s investment status. An improved economic climate will encourage investors and developers to take advantage of the country's well-structured regulatory framework and the government...


Portugal Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : The Portuguese market is mature and exhibits volatile growth. Market saturation, low discretionary spending and high prepaid subscribers all contribute towards a telecom industry outlook that is far from optimistic. However, changed ownership for all key players bar Vodafone suggests that more rational investment strategies will lead to the development of more advanced services. This will be a boon to the weak consumer market, but the surviving operators will need to be leaner and fitter to survive the changing market dynamics.

Multi-play And Multi-User Packages Drive 3G/4G Upgrades
Portrugal Mobile Market Forecasts

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