Portugal

In-depth country-focused analysis on Portugal's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Portugal

Our comprehensive assessment of Portugal's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Portugal, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Portugal's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Portugal before your competitors.

Country Risk

Portugal Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Portugal's recovery will remain on track in 2016, with domestic demand being the main driver of growth, mainly boosted by a fiscal stimulus by the government. However, fading tailwinds from the ECB QE programme and lower oil prices, stagnating external demand and the precarious condition of the banking sector will cap growth at just 1.7% in 2016, and 1.6% in 2017.

  • The victory of centre-right candidate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Portugal's presidential election on January 24 will boost the country's political stability outlook. Presenting himself as a moderate consensus-builder, he will serve as a counterweight to the Socialist-led minority government in relation to its more radical supporters, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party.

Forecast Changes

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Portugal Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Portugal Medical Devices

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BMI View: The Portuguese medical device market will remain the second smallest in Western Europe, while per capita expenditure will be the lowest in the region. Market growth will remain subdued, with low prices and lower volume purchases. Small and medium-sized companies have to deal with large debts owed by public hospitals, despite increased investment intended to reduce this problem.

Projected Medical Device Market, 2014-2019
Total (USDmn) ...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Portugal Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Fiscal loosening by the newly-initiated Socialist-led government in Portugal and rising private consumption will benefit pharmaceutical sales in 2016. According to the latest data on market activity we have revised upwards our pharmaceutical market forecast, although operating challenges will remain due to high levels of debt in the public hospital sector. Meanwhile, with competitiveness to diminish due to the partial reversal of austerity measures, we do not see major room for Portuguese industrial sectors to become more attractive to investors in the near term, including the pharmaceutical sector. That said, long-term demand for healthcare due to an ageing population will keep translating into the need for access to medical...

Renewables

Portugal Renewables

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Portugal - Headline Renewables Forecast
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f

Telecommunications

Portugal Telecommunications

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BMI View : The Portuguese market is mature and exhibits volatile growth. Market saturation, low discretionary spending and high prepaid subscribers all contribute towards a telecom industry outlook that is far from optimistic. However, changed ownership for all key players bar Vodafone suggests that more rational investment strategies will lead to the development of more advanced services. This will be a boon to the weak consumer market, but the surviving operators will need to be leaner and fitter to survive the changing market dynamics.

Multi-play And Multi-User Packages Drive 3G/4G Upgrades
Portrugal Mobile Market Forecasts
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