Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions now forecast the Philippines economy to contract -2.0% in 2020, down from a previous forecast of 0.5% growth, reflecting the unparalleled shock to the economy the Covid-19 pandemic has proved.
• Key to our revision is an expectation for household consumption to prove vulnerable through the year on the back of a

Key View

• We expect the Philippines’ substantial infrastructure project pipeline to drive light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales over the long term.
• We also expect the Public Utilities Vehicle Modernisation Program (PUVMP) to support demand for new LCVs.
• We maintain that ASEAN (Association of South-East Nations) based exporters stand to benefit

Key Risk

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast the Philippines’ current account deficit to widen, as a collapse in external demand outweighs the impact of softer domestic consumption amid the Covid-19 (coronavirus) outbreak.
• In particular, tourism – which accounts for around 25% of GDP - will suffer and we note remittance and investment returns from

Key View

• Philippines’ consumer and retail sector is expected to be one the sectors hardest hit by the month-long lockdown of Luzon island, where 50% of its population resides and which accounts for 73% of the country’s GDP.
• We have also revised down our total household spending forecast for the Philippine’s based on this lockdown and wider

Key View

• The Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) will continue to maintain a dovish stance over the coming quarters, amid the coronavirus outbreak.
• While we expect fiscal policy to be the key stimulus tool used by policymakers in the Philippines, we do not rule out further monetary easing.
• We at Fitch Solutions forecast another 50 basis points

Key View

• The Philippine central bank (BSP) will maintain a dovish stance over the coming quarters, given the downside shock to the economy expected in Q120.
• We believe that the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) outbreak poses both economic and disinflationary risks, which will prompt the BSP to cut again in H120.
• However, the extent to which the

Key View

• Pressure on pharmaceutical prices will continue to threaten the operations of multinational drugmakers in the Philippines.
• The introduction of maximum retail price scheme will exacerbate a tough environment, with price controls being applied at all stages of supply chain.
• An increasing focus on cost-effective expenditure will

Key View

• The proposed 2020 government budget will be a positive for Philippine's healthcare sector.
• The budget proposes a significant increase in funds allocated to the Department of Health which will enable authorities to finance the expansion of the country's health insurance scheme and upgrade medical facilities.
• Price controls will