Strong real GDP growth and the introduction of tax reforms have strengthened Peru’s public accounts. However, the country's relatively strong fiscal position is being challenged by ongoing declines in the price of copper, a key source of government revenue. Despite a deteriorating fiscal picture, Peru’s growing middle class will make consumer-related sectors, such as retail and food & drink, increasingly attractive for investors over the medium to long term.
We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in Peru, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 19 of Peru’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our expert research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can feel confident doing business in Peru.
Peru Country Risk
The Peruvian economy will recover in the coming years, driven by robust private consumption growth and a pickup in infrastructure investment.
After the budget balance flipped from a surplus to a deficit for the first time since 2009 in 2014, we expect persistent shortfalls in the coming years due to lower government revenue growth.
Weakening trade dynamics will drive depreciation in the Peruvian sol through 2016, with a modest appreciatory trend set to begin in 2017.
Major Forecast Changes:
Signs of further softening of Chinese metals demand saw us alter our exchange rate outlook for 2016, and we now anticipate a further weakening of the sol next year. We forecast the unit to average PEN3.210/USD in 2015 and PEN3.540/USD in 2016....
Peru Operational Risk Coverage (9)
Peru Operational Risk
Peru Operational Risk
BMI View: Peru offers one of the more attractive locations for investment in Latin America, due to its vast natural resource wealth, international trade connectivity, and an open policy towards foreign direct investment. The government treats both foreign and domestic investors equally under law and there are few restrictions on trade, capital flows or access to financing. However, the operating environment is undermined by an inefficient and corrupt judiciary, which hinders the effective enforcement of contracts and prevents the adequate protection of intellectual property rights. The country is therefore ranked in 18th position regionally in the overall BMI Trade and Investment Risk Index, out of 42...
Peru Crime & Security
Peru Crime & Security
Peru scores 42.1 out of 100 for Crime and Security Risk.
Crime in Peru poses a serious security risk to potential investors, whether in terms of property crime, crime committed against an individual, or cybercrime. Foreigners from well-developed countries present an enticing opportunity to criminals because of their perceived wealth, but this is normally non-violent and rarely life-threatening. The prevalence of small gangs in larger cities, such as Lima, has contributed to an uptick in 'snatch and grab' robberies, which increases the risk to expatriates. Of equal risk to foreign workers is the rise in assaults and robberies taking place in unregistered taxis that have been collecting foreigners from airports.
Burglary, of both business and residential properties, has become more frequent, occurring mostly during the day and at weekends. Freight theft is also a growing concern in Peru, particularly for mining, oil and...
Peru Labour Market
Peru Labour Market
BMI View: Peru's labour market offers a number of attractions for investors, notably stemming from its large and urbanised population, which boasts widespread vocational skills, and the low overheads incurred from employing local workers. These factors elevate Peru above all of its South American peers, bar neighbouring Chile, as an attractive location for labour intensive industries, reflected in a regional ranking of sixth out of 42 Latin American states in the BMI Labour Market Risk Index, with a score of 60.7 out of 100. The main drawbacks include an underperforming education system which fails to produce adequate numbers of highly skilled workers, necessitating more extensive training programmes and the import of foreign workers to fill higher-level positions.
Although the country has seen growth in the number of education...
Peru's relatively developed logistics network is a regional outperformer in the BMI Logistics Risk Index, with an above average score of 59.2 out of 100, placing the country in 52nd place out of 170 nations globally. Within Latin America, Peru is ranked 4th out of 28 countries, behind only Panama, Chile and Mexico. An insufficient level of investment into the maintenance and development of Peru's transport networks has left the country with a low score of 46.7 out of 100 for Transport Quality, the country's worst logistics rating in BMI's index. The score places it 84 th out of 170 countries globally and 12 th out of 28 states in Latin America. However, this is likely to improve with the government planning to invest USD15bn over the next 5 years.
With the exception of the country's 8,808km of navigable waterways, Peru suffers from a substandard network of transport. The...
Peru Trade & Investment
Peru Trade & Investment
Peru has a weak legal system that offers little protection for businesses and suffers from extensive bureaucracy, hindering an investor's ability to open and close a business. However Peru's strong international ties provide good trade opportunities for investors and promote the country's trade and investment score. Overall, Peru is a regional underperformer for Trade and Investment Risk in BMI's Operational Risk Index, with a score of 45.9 out of 100, which places it 16 th out of 28 countries in Latin America and 94 th out of 170 states worldwide.
Peru's weak legal environment poses the most pronounced risk to investors, which is reflected in the country's low score of 46.6 out of 100 for this indicator in our Trade and Investment Risk Index. The country's law enforcement is considered to be highly corrupt, which has led to poor protection of intellectual property and a lack of confidence in the...
Peru Industry Coverage (18)
BMI View: We have revised our forecasts for several segments of the Peruvian agricultural sector in our Q1 2016 update though continue to maintain a positive outlook for the agricultural sector as a whole. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by infrastructure constraints and a lack of investment; however, as Peru develops and gains recognition for organic and speciality crops, both these sectors stand to benefit. Peru is also set to benefit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains and weakness in the Argentine peso, as Argentina is a major source of imported grains.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
BMI View: A strengthening economy and rising consumer spending inform BMI's positive view on Peru's new vehicle sales in 2016. We forecast a 2.3% increase, with commercial vehicles set to outperform.
Peru Commercial Banking
|Date||Total assets||Client loans||Bond portfolio||Other||Liabilities and capital||Capital||Client deposits...|
Peru Consumer Electronics
BMI View: After a contraction of the consumer electronics devices market in both 2015 and 2016 we envisage a return to growth over the medium term as Peruvian purchasing power increases, which is expected to deepen the market and help alleviate price sensitivity. This trend of households moving up the income scale will both deepen the market as Peruvians acquire sufficient disposable income for first-time device purchases, and present vendors the opportunity to generate wider margins as the middle-class expands. Our forecast for a device spending CAGR of 5.0% 2016-2020 is in contrast to the short-term outlook, with another year of contraction forecast for 2016, albeit with market conditions expected to be less challenging than 2015 when depreciation against the US dollar negatively affected demand through the...
Food & Drink
Peru Food & Drink
BMI View: We maintain a positive longer-term view of Peru's food and drink sector, which will see strong expansion rates and present a number of interesting investment opportunities over the forecast period. Peru's food and drink sector will attract more foreign investment over the coming years, on the back of market fragmentation and increasing household purchasing power. Peru will also look increasingly attractive as key regional markets, such as Brazil and Colombia, experience an economic slowdown.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
Total food consumption growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015: +9.3%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014-2019: +9.2%;
Per capita food consumption growth (y-o-y) in 2015: +7.8%; CAGR 2014-2019: +7.8%;
Peru Freight Transport
BMI View: Peru's freight sector will continue to have mixed growth rates in 2016, with a contraction in rail freight volumes of 2.48%, slowing growth in road freight at 1.05%, and the strongest growth in air freight at 2.75%. Rail freight has been affected by low exports of copper and generally subdued metals prices, while road freight growth will improve on 2015 estimates due to moderate growth in trade activity and construction sector growth. Rising private consumption leading to stronger demand for consumer electronics will benefit the air freight sector the most, hence the strongest growth forecast for this transport mode.
The economy in Peru is steadily improving and we forecast GDP growth at 3.8% for 2016, up from 2.2% estimated for 2015. August and September 2015 have however seen below expectations growth rates in GDP. The moderate growth is largely due to a slowdown in Peru...
Peru Information Technology
BMI View: Peru's IT market is one of the least developed in Latin America, with low device and solution penetration among households and enterprises, but we do consider it to have bright prospects as the household income profile improves over the medium term, alongside the ongoing trend of enterprise modernisation. This will see the market move to a higher growth trajectory from 2017, after a marked deceleration in 2015 and 2016 when a downturn in economic sentiment, and nuevo sol depreciation against the US dollar that resulted in deferred spending and heightened price sensitivity. We also consider government policies to support IT sector growth in Peru positively ...
BMI View: We expect the Peruvian construction industry to recover in 2016, following a severe contraction in 2016 as a number of key transport and energy projects move forward. Over the longer term, a robust project pipeline, high infrastructure demand and strong political support for infrastructure development will maintain construction growth.
We expect a rebound in Peru's construction industry in 2016. The advancement of high value projects in the transport and energy and utilities sectors, coupled with low base effects, will see the total construction value expand 4.8% in real terms.
Peru Medical Devices
BMI View: Although small, the market will grow by a 2014-2019 CAGR of 7.4% in US dollar terms, underpinned by government investment in the health infrastructure, including the establishment of new hospitals and the expansion of the telemedicine service. Lima will remain the most attractive area in the private sector, as the urban population has more disposable income to spend on medical devices.
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BMI View: Peru's mining industry will ramp up in terms of value and production growth, despite low mineral prices during 2016-2019. Competitive operating costs and a stable business environment will support a strong project pipeline.
Oil & Gas
Peru Oil & Gas
BMI View: While the Peruvian government is trying to garner investor interest in the country's upstream potential, we believe that lack of below-ground prospectivity, a history of strong environmental opposition and a highly competitive regional market will be the key factors diminishing the attractiveness of the country's oil and gas industry over the coming years.
Above-ground risks to the development of the natural gas sector are impeding progress on the development of Peru's downstream petrochemicals potential, which is considerable given the massive size of the country's upstream resources. Completion of any world-scale petrochemicals complex is unlikely before 2020 as the country needs to secure significant infrastructural development before investment can be guaranteed. If Peru realises its ambitions in the petrochemicals sector, it could rival Brazil as a major supplier to the South American polymers market.
From an estimated production of 12.7bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2014, we forecast Peru's natural gas production to increase over the next decade owning to strong domestic demands. This relatively bullish forecast is based on our view that the sector will benefit from a strong reserves picture and recent investments into infrastructure.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Peru Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Although Peru has still to overcome several institutional shortcomings in public services, its promising economic outlook and its government's commitment to increased investment in the healthcare sector will be factors contributing to the improvement of Peru's pharmaceutical business environment. We believe that, over the next decade, drugmakers and medical device firms will enjoy revenue growth in the country, in the light of efforts to achieve greater health coverage and improved health indicators.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: PEN4.67bn (USD1.65bn) in 2014 to PEN4.98bn (USD1.56bn) in 2015; +6.7% in local currency terms and -4.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous...
BMI View: We maintain our positive outlook for Peru's power sector over the coming decade, based on strong growth in power consumption, government tenders for power generation and transmissions projects, and robust investor interest in the market. Growth in electricity generation will come primarily from by additional hydropower and natural gas-fired...
Peru Real Estate
BMI View: We expect to see a slower level of economic growth in Peru over the coming years than we previously anticipated; however growth is still set to accelerate and as a result, the real estate sector will benefit. Growth particularly in the retail and industrial sectors will be observed as infrastructure development projects will lend support to the generation of new secondary locations. Such developments will also see demand shift marginally from Lima, and rental rates in secondary locations may be set to rise with demand levels. The capital will maintain its dominance upon all three real estate sub-sectors in the short-term, but over the coming years we may witness an alleviation of pressure upon the city - something which is desperately needed should the market maintain liquidity.
Peru's economy grew at a rate of 2.8% in 2015, predominantly influenced by private consumption and...
BMI View: Household spending is set to continue to show strong growth in 2016, rising by a little over 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in local currency terms, although in USD terms it will register a decline due to the falling value of the PEN. Peru is expected to have 80 shopping malls by the end of the year, which, together with a growing e-commerce sector, increasing affluence and credit availability, will support further growth in non-essentials spending during the year.
|Headline Household Spending|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: INEI Peru, BMI ...|
BMI View : The launch of Bitel , offering low cost, prepaid services, while Entel has adopted an aggressive strategy that will increase competition. Meanwhile, Azteca 's Fibre Optic Backbone Network, set to be completed in March 2016, will significantly boost wireline broadband coverage, although mobile broadband will continue to be a key growth area. Despite telecoms penetrations lagging behind many other countries in the region, the market is innovative with mobile banking and OTT TV launching. Due to...
BMI View: This quarter we have substantially adjusted our water forecasts, drawing on new data and revising our future projections. Overall, we expect demand to drive investment into the water supply sector, and increased water metering to boost revenues and reduce non-payment risks to service providers. We maintain our positive outlook with regards to infrastructure developments, owing to the need for extensive sanitation developments and additional water supply requirements. However, we note that economic issues might constrain investment.
The water sector has improved dramatically over the past few years. This has largely been due to increased investment by the state and the main water companies, better connections reducing wastewater dumping, increasing revenues, better water...