In-depth country-focused analysis on Norway's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight


Norway attracts a number of our clients as Western Europe's largest oil producer, and the world's second-largest natural gas exporter. In terms of GDP per capita, Norway is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. The country has a long and solid tradition of democratic governance, with emphasis on consensus-forming and negotiated solutions to political differences.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on eight of Norway’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our results-proven research teams. We aim to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can do business with ease in Norway.

Country Risk

Norway Country Risk

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Core Views

  • A sharp slowdown in hydrocarbons sector investment amid a collapse in global oil prices will weigh on Norwegian GDP growth between 2015-17.

  • The Norwegian government will continue to expand fiscal policy in order to stimulate demand in the short run and to lay the structural foundations for stronger non-hydrocarbons growth over the longer run.

  • The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years.

  • We envisage broad political continuity to the next election in 2017, with the Conservative-Progress minority coalition government achieving modest progress on its reform agenda.

Key Forecast Changes

  • In...

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Norway Industry Coverage (8)


Norway Autos

BMI View:

BMI maintains a modest view on the Norwegian autos market. Growth is expected to come from the dominant passenger car segment, with electric vehicle subsidies and strong private consumption growth buoying the market. However, the commercial vehicle segment is expected to register modest growth during 2015 due to low base effects, despite low government spending on infrastructure and the uncompetitive manufacturing sector.

As we had anticipated in 2014, generous tax and road use incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) will be wound down in Norway. However, we believe sales volumes will remain above those seen in other countries in Europe owing to the government's decision to maintain VAT and purchasing tax exemptions on new electric car sales until 2017.

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Food & Drink

Norway Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: Boasting a consumer base of 25mn with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world and offering a favourable business and regulatory environment, the four Nordic markets could offer attractive investment opportunities. That said, there are limited opportunities for growth, as the economic and demographic outlook remains relatively grim. Moreover, the food and drink markets are highly concentrated, presenting significant challenges for new entrants.

Key Forecasts


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Norway Infrastructure

BMI View:

  • BMI View: A medium-term picture of slowing oil infrastructure investment and weak economic growth means construction industry performance will be constrained. The economy need to diversify away from its hydrocarbon dependence, which will cause instability in most markets over the medium term. On the upside the sector is supported by a solid major project pipeline, government commitment to infrastructure spending and strong investment. ...

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Medical Devices

Norway Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI Industry View : The Norwegian medical device market is limited by the size of the population, but enjoys above average per capita spending of USD300. The market is projected to grow at a US dollar CAGR of 3.9% to 2019 with the ageing population the main growth driver. The market will continue to be import-led with much of domestic production geared to the export market.


Headline Industry Forecasts

  • We forecast that the Norwegian medical device market will grow at a 2014-2019 CAGR of 3.9%, from USD1,529.2mn in 2014 to USD1,853.1mn in 2019. Growth will range from 2.5% for patient aids up to 5.1% for other medical devices. This will make Norway the second fastest growing market in Western Europe,...

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Oil & Gas

Norway Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: New field developments and improved recovery will stabilise oil production over the 2015-2019 period. Weaker oil prices will curtail investment, though the long-term impact will be masked by the vast Johan Sverdrup project starting in 2019. Gas production will also remain flat, fluctuating with European demand.

Headline Forecasts (Norway 2013-2019)
2013 2014e ...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Norway Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Norway's pharmaceuticals and healthcare markets will continue to expand over the next decade, with patented medicines to continue to account for the majority of the drug market, reflecting an ageing population and the adoption of innovative treatments. Meanwhile, as Norway's economy transitions away from its dependency on hydrocarbons, this means that public support for investment in innovative sectors, including the biotech and pharmaceutical sector, will continue to strengthen.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: NOK21.70bn (USD3.48bn) in 2014 to NOK21.97bn (USD2.76bn) in 2015; +1.26% in local currency terms and -20.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.


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Norway Power

BMI View:

BMI View: The power sector in Norway is highly developed, with universal coverage and more than sufficient generation and capacity. Consumption is expected to show only minimal growth throughout our ten-year forecast period and as a mature market this indicates little incentive for significant investment in new power plants. Instead much of the investment will be focused on upgrading existing hydropower plants and the grid, including cross-border connections to facilitate exports or potentially some diversification into non hydropower renewable, particularly underdeveloped wind power.

Headline Power Forecasts (Norway 2014-2020)

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Norway Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: The Norwegian mobile market has effectively become a two-player market, despite the conditions given to ICE as part of the TeliaSonera/Tele2 deal. Telenor continues to be the dominant player across all telecoms sectors (fixed and mobile), and its greater focus on fibre services recently will help continue its leadership. As the market will not compete on price, more innovative services should appear, benefiting consumers, with Telenor's scale giving it an advantage in future drivers, such as connected objects. Its main risk is regulation, as its losses in the fixed voice segment are due to its inability to bundle that service.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • Norway's mobile market is saturated, having remained stable between 5.8mn and 5.9mn subscribers...

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