Norway attracts a number of our clients as Western Europe's largest oil producer, and the world's second-largest natural gas exporter. In terms of GDP per capita, Norway is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. The country has a long and solid tradition of democratic governance, with emphasis on consensus-forming and negotiated solutions to political differences.
We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on eight of Norway’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our results-proven research teams. We aim to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can do business with ease in Norway.
Norway Country Risk
A sharp slowdown in hydrocarbons sector investment amid a collapse in global oil prices will weigh on Norwegian GDP growth between 2016-18.
The Norwegian government will continue to expand fiscal policy in order to stimulate demand in the short run and to lay the structural foundations for stronger non-hydrocarbons growth over the longer run.
The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years.
We envisage broad political continuity to the next election in 2017, with the Conservative-Progress minority coalition government achieving modest progress on its reform agenda.
Key Forecast Changes
Norway Industry Coverage (8)
BMI View: A massive and sustained drop in consumer confidence over 2015 coupled with sustained all-time record sales volumes since 2011 mean Norway's market will peak by 2017 and plateau for the remainder of our forecast period through to 2019.
|Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Bil, BMI|
Norway will remain an oasis for electric vehicles given the...
Food & Drink
Norway Food & Drink
BMI View: Boasting a consumer base of 25mn with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world and offering a favourable business and regulatory environment, the four Nordic markets could offer attractive investment opportunities. That said, there are limited opportunities for growth, as the economic and demographic outlook remains relatively grim. Moreover, the food and drink markets are highly concentrated, presenting significant challenges for new entrants.
BMI View: The construction sector is supported by a solid major project pipeline, government commitment to infrastructure spending and a strong investment environment. However, a long-term picture of slowing hydrocarbons revenues and a transitioning economy will constrain construction industry performance. Sector growth will average 2.6% annually between 2016 and 2025.
We see construction industry growth falling from a stronger than predicted 4.9% in 2015 to 2.9% in 2016 and a value of NOK182bn (USD21bn). This is due to industry indicators in 9M15 being stronger than expected.
Over the next decade to 2025, growth will average 2.6% annually, as growth moderates amid a transitioning economy.
The 2016 budget outlines significant spending on infrastructure as a pillar for long-term economic...
Norway Medical Devices
BMI Industry View : The Norwegian medical device market is limited by the size of the population, but enjoys above average per capita spending of USD300. The market is projected to grow at a US dollar CAGR of 3.9% to 2019 with the ageing population the main growth driver. The market will continue to be import-led with much of domestic production geared to the export market.
Headline Industry Forecasts
We forecast that the Norwegian medical device market will grow at a 2014-2019 CAGR of 3.9%, from USD1,529.2mn in 2014 to USD1,853.1mn in 2019. Growth will range from 2.5% for patient aids up to 5.1% for other medical devices. This will make Norway the second fastest growing market in Western Europe,...
Oil & Gas
Norway Oil & Gas
BMI View: New field developments and improved recovery will stabilise oil production over the 2015-2019 period. Weaker oil prices will curtail investment, though the long-term impact will be masked by the vast Johan Sverdrup project starting in 2019. Gas production will improve as lower prices support European demand.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Norway Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Norway's 2016 fiscal stimulus is expected to be positive in terms of supporting the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector growth trajectory. Over the long term, policies aimed at promoting economic diversification away from energy exports are set to benefit the biotech and pharmaceutical sector development, which will remain a key policy priority. A growing and ageing population and high per capita expenditure on medicine will ensure renewed opportunities for drugmakers over the forecast period despite the small market size.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: NOK21.70bn (USD3.48bn) in 2014 to NOK21.98bn (USD2.69bn) in 2015; +1.28% in local currency terms and -22.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with last quarter...
BMI View: Norway's already mature power sector will experience limited, but stable, growth throughout our forecast period due to electricity generation far exceeding consumption. Any investment in new capacity will focus on hydropower plants, which will crowd out thermal power and, to a lesser extent, wind power, due to lower level costs.
BMI View: The Norwegian mobile market has effectively become a two-player market, despite the conditions given to ICE as part of the TeliaSonera/Tele2 deal. Telenor continues to be the dominant player across all telecoms sectors (fixed and mobile), and its greater focus on fibre services recently will help continue its leadership. As the market will not compete on price, more innovative services should appear, benefiting consumers, with Telenor's scale giving it an advantage in future drivers, such as connected objects. Its main risk is regulation, as its losses in the fixed voice segment are due to its inability to bundle that service.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Norway's mobile market is saturated, having remained stable between 5.8mn and 5.9mn subscribers...