Norway

In-depth country-focused analysis on Norway's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Norway

Norway attracts a number of our clients as Western Europe's largest oil producer, and the world's second-largest natural gas exporter. In terms of GDP per capita, Norway is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. The country has a long and solid tradition of democratic governance, with emphasis on consensus-forming and negotiated solutions to political differences.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on eight of Norway’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our results-proven research teams. We aim to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can do business with ease in Norway.

Country Risk

Norway Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • A sharp slowdown in hydrocarbons sector investment amid a collapse in global oil prices will weigh on Norwegian GDP growth between 2016-18.

  • The Norwegian government will continue to expand fiscal policy in order to stimulate demand in the short run and to lay the structural foundations for stronger non-hydrocarbons growth over the longer run.

  • The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years.

  • We envisage broad political continuity to the next election in 2017, with the Conservative-Progress minority coalition government achieving modest progress on its reform agenda.

Key Forecast Changes

  • We have...

Norway Industry Coverage (17)

Autos

Norway Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: Slowing in economic growth and low consumer confidence will be problematic for growth in the passenger vehicle segment. In addition, heavy truck sales will be impeded by slowing in the oil and gas sector.

Economic Headwinds To Impact Autos Market
Vehicle Sales (2014-2020)
f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI

...

Food & Drink

Norway Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: A consumer base with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world, combined with a favourable business and regulatory environment, will continue to be an attractive characteristic for food and drink companies operating in Scandinavia. That said, market concentration and a weak demographic outlook will limit growth for new entrants.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • Throughout our forecast period to 2020, household spending will experience healthy growth in the Nordics, given...

Infrastructure

Norway Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: Norway is at the beginning of transitioning from a hydrocarbons dependent economy, which means the value of its construction sector is taking a beating also. On the upside, the construction sector is supported by a solid major project pipeline, government commitment to infrastructure spending and a strong investment environment. However, a long-term picture of slowing hydrocarbons revenues and a transitioning economy will constrain construction industry performance. Sector growth will average 2.6% annually between 2016 and 2025.


  • Construction industry growth will be firm against economic headwinds in the near term, however, after 2018 growth will moderate into a pattern of muted returns as the country transitions from a hydrocarbons upstream driven investment base.

  • Over the next decade to...

Medical Devices

Norway Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI Industry View : The Norwegian medical device market is limited by the size of the population, but enjoys above average per capita spending of USD300. The market is projected to grow at a US dollar CAGR of 3.9% to 2019 with the ageing population the main growth driver. The market will continue to be import-led with much of domestic production geared to the export market.

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Headline Industry Forecasts

  • We forecast that the Norwegian medical device market will grow at a 2014-2019 CAGR of 3.9%, from USD1,529.2mn in 2014 to USD1,853.1mn in 2019. Growth will range from 2.5% for patient aids up to 5.1% for other medical devices. This will make Norway the second fastest growing market in Western Europe,...

Metals

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We have increased our 2016 tin price forecast to USD16,500/tonne owing to a stabilisation in the Chinese economy over Q116 that has boosted all industrial metal prices significantly over January-April. While we expect consolidation over the remainder of 2016, tin prices will continue to recover beyond 2016 as the global market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.

Global - Tin Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f ...

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI view: We have revised our aluminium price forecast from USD1,575/tonne to USD1,600/tonne in 2016, as the tightening market provided an earlier than expected floor in Q116. Aluminium prices will gradually edge higher as the global market moves into a deficit by 2018.

...
Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Despite the strong H116 iron ore price rally, prices will edge lower due to weakening Chinese consumption over the latter half of 2016. From 2017 onwards, iron ore prices will remain subdued as iron ore prices remain under pressure from an over-supplied seaborne market, driven by strong production growth in Australia and Brazil, and weak consumption growth in China.

...
Global - Iron Ore Production Forecasts
2013 2014 2015e 2016f

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Nickel prices will bottom in 2016 as weak production drags the global market into deficit. For instance, we expect Chinese imports of nickel to grow over the coming quarters. Prices will begin 2016 weaker than we had previously expected and we have thus revised down our 2016 average price forecast to USD9,000/tonne from USD10,500/tonne.

...
Global Nickel Forecasts
2013 2014 2015e

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We have revised down our average copper price forecast for 2016 to USD4,900/tonne. We expect prices to find a floor over the first half of 2016, and begin to stabilise thereafter, supported by production cuts and modest consumption growth.

Global - Copper Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f ...

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We have raised our gold price forecast for 2016 to USD1,275/oz and have a new five-year price target of USD1,400/oz. We have turned more positive towards prices due to rising inflation pressures and our view that real rates will remain depressed in developed markets beyond 2016. A modest rise in prices will be insufficient to reverse the trend of weak mine investment and industry consolidation.

BMI Gold Forecasts
2014 2015 2016f ...

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Global steel prices will remain subdued due to a persistent steel oversupply over the coming quarters. From 2017 onwards, steel prices will gradually edge higher as the global steel surplus will narrow due to Chinese supply moderation.

Steel Price Forecast
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f...

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We maintain our average zinc price forecast for 2016 of USD1,750/tonne. We expect zinc prices to reach a floor over the first half of 2016, and begin to stabilise thereafter, as production cuts shift the market to a deficit.

...
Global - Zinc Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f

Norway Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Lead prices will gradually edge higher as the global lead market will shift into deficit by 2017 as production growth will slow over the coming years.

...
BMI Lead Price Forecast
Current* 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Oil & Gas

Norway Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: New field developments and improved recovery will stabilise oil production over the 2016-2019 period. Weaker oil prices will curtail investment, although the long-term impact will be masked by the vast Johan Sverdrup project starting in 2019. Gas production will improve as lower prices support European demand.

Headline Forecasts (Norway 2014-2020)
2014 ...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Norway Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Norway's 2016 fiscal stimulus is expected to be positive in terms of supporting the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector growth trajectory. Over the long term, policies aimed at promoting economic diversification away from energy exports are set to benefit the biotech and pharmaceutical sector development, which will remain a key policy priority. A growing and ageing population and high per capita expenditure on medicine will ensure renewed opportunities for drugmakers over the forecast period despite the small market size.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: NOK21.70bn (USD3.48bn) in 2014 to NOK21.98bn (USD2.69bn) in 2015; +1.28% in local currency terms and -22.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with last quarter...

Power

Norway Power

BMI View:

BMI View: The maturity of the Norwegian power market, coupled with surplus power generation, means overall generation growth will remain limited. Hydropower will remain the dominant source of power at over 94% of total generation, with ambitions to increase export capacity, driving the growth of non-hydropower renewable electricity up until 2020.

Headline Power Forecasts (Norway 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f ...

Telecommunications

Norway Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: The Norwegian mobile market has effectively become a two-player market, despite the conditions given to ICE as part of the TeliaSonera/Tele2 deal. Telenor continues to be the dominant player across all telecoms sectors (fixed and mobile), and its greater focus on fibre services recently will help continue its leadership. As the market will not compete on price, more innovative services should appear, benefiting consumers, with Telenor's scale giving it an advantage in future drivers, such as connected objects. Its main risk is regulation, as its losses in the fixed voice segment are due to its inability to bundle that service.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • Norway's mobile market is saturated, having remained stable between 5.8mn and 5.9mn subscribers...

Latest Norway Articles

  • With global growth continuing to stutter amid unconvincing growth performan...

  • A few key themes stand out when comparing BMI's forecasts against Bloomberg...

  • We have upgraded our oil price forecast this month with markets having pric...

Latest Norway Blogs

  • September is shaping up to be a very busy month for politics. Aside from th...

Latest Norway Podcasts

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