ZANU-PF Succession Battle Entering Volatile Waters

BMI View: There continues to be little clarity on who will succeed President Robert Mugabe as leader of Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party. Party elections in December 2014, where several senior positions will be up for grabs, will shed limited light on the succession question as party hierarchy will be only one of many variables that will determine who takes the helm. The recent entry of Mugabe's wife into frontline politics introduces a new dimension to the battle.

A continuing lack of clarity on President Robert Mugabe's succession as leader of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), and the jostle for positions by members ahead of a December party congress mean Zimbabwe's political climate is likely to see a volatile six months. Mugabe's strategy to prevent either of the main contenders - Vice President Joice Mujuru and Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa - from gaining meaningful advantage in order to maintain his own tight grip on power looks set to continue amid indications that his wife, Grace, may have leadership ambitions of her own. The succession struggle will prevent the formation and implementation of the kinds of policy needed to resuscitate the moribund economy, which will continue to struggle for the final six months of 2014.

D-Day In December?

ZANU-PF Dominant At A National Level Despite Factionalism
Zimbabwe - Parliamentary Election Results, % Of seats (LHS) & Presidential Election Result, % Of Votes (RHS)

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This article is tagged to:
Sector: Country Risk
Geography: Zimbabwe

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