A drop in commodity prices, which are trading above historical trend, could result in a drop in foreign investment in mines and associated infrastructure. However, copper prices and demand for copper should remain strong, despite a slight fall in prices over 2012.
Reduced mining revenues would also reduce government revenues and therefore remove funding for public infrastructure investment.
The election of Michael Sata as president presents some threat to policy continuity. Although Sata is working to root out corruption and improve transparency, this will involve a policy shakeup and has led to the sacking of high-ranking officials. However, we do not anticipate any major changes in policy and expect this to benefit the country's business environment.