Worst Is Over For Vital Tourism Industry
Egypt's vital tourism sector is at its lowest point since February 2011, however, we think that this will mark the low point for the vital tourism industry. According to the latest data from Egypt's Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, 301,150 tourists came to Egypt in September 2013, a 69.4% y-o-y decline. This marked the lowest level since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak. Given that industry accounts for around 10% of the country's GDP and employs a similar share of the population, as well as being a vital source of dollars into the country, these figures are depressing for the country's economic outlook.
|Egypt - Tourist Arrivals|
However, we expect the worst of Egypt's tourism crisis is over on the back of an improved political situation (See: Political Risks Moderating, For Now' September 13). It is likely that the improved political outlook will lead to increased tourist numbers, although the effect will be somewhat lagged as tourists tend to plan holidays in advance. That said, the pre-2011 levels of over one million tourists arriving in Egypt each month are still a long way off, and we do not expect a return to those figures for the foreseeable future.