US Air Strikes Increasingly Likely
BMI View: Risks that the US will carry out military air strikes in Iraq have increased significantly following attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS). Iran is also expected to further aid the Iraqi government by supporting Shi'a militias and conducting special operations. While foreign support could contain the ISIS's offensive, it will do little to stop the Jihadist group from consolidating power in northern Iraq.
Risks that the United States will intervene militarily in the political crisis in Iraq through air strikes have increased significantly since militias linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) advanced south after occupying Mosul on June 10. ISIS occupied the city of Tikrit in central Iraq on June 11, which was partly retaken by Iraqi forces, and the towns of Saadiyah and Jalawla in the eastern province of Diyala fell to the insurgents on June 13.
Drone Strikes The Most Likely Option