News: According to Ukrainian miner and steelmaker Metinvest, overall domestic steel consumption by industrial companies is expected to fall by 3.08% y-o-y in 2013 to 6.3mn tonnes, reports Steel Orbis. Steel consumption among small domestic consumers is expected to remain stable y-o-y at 2.6mn tonnes. For the full-year 2014, meanwhile, Metinvest forecasts that Ukrainian industrial steel consumption will reach 6.6mn tonnes.
BMI View: Ukraine's metal sector will see modest growth over the coming years, with a handful of new projects set to push production growth higher. However, production will not return to its pre-crisis highs as global overcapacity is set to remain and we believe steel prices are unlikely to make substantive gains over the course of 2013. These two factors will disincentivise significant expansions. Indeed, none of the major players in either the aluminium or steel industries have announced substantial investment in Ukraine.