Trade Dynamics To Persist Despite Diversification Efforts
BMI View: Our forecasts suggest that Central and Eastern Europe will register a strong increase in both oil and gas consumption. We also expect growth in gas production and exports, although a clear divide between net importers in Eastern Europe and net exporters in Russia and the Central Asian countries will underpin the aggregate trade balance. Diversification of gas imports and flexibility of supply thus remains a key strategy for Eastern Europe, while Russia and Central Asian countries increasingly look to East Asia for new growth markets.
The key themes that have emerged in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) oil and gas forecasts are:
The regional production outlook is far more positive for gas than oil. Regional gas output is expected to rise 18.4% from 2013 to 2022, compared to an increase of around 5.9% for oil. Net importers and exporters alike could see substantial rises in output from greenfield projects - particularly from offshore production in the Caspian, Black and Arctic Seas.
Gas Production Set For Strongest Growth Regional Oil Production (LHC, '000b/d) & Gas Production (RHC, bcm), 2013-2022