Secessionist And Autonomist Movements To Gain Major Momentum
BMI View: More countries will face separatist or autonomist pressures over the coming decade, and central versus federal tensions will remain a major source of political risk worldwide. However, significant obstacles to independence mean that few new sovereign states will emerge.
We expect many more countries to experience separatist pressures over the coming decade. Even in countries where secessionist movements do not exist or will fail, there will be demands for greater regional autonomy. This will be the case in virtually every region in the world.
There are scores of ethnic groups lacking their own sovereign states, as well as groups seeking autonomous regions in which they can better preserve their cultures, traditions, or relative wealth. One of the most powerful drivers of autonomy-seeking movements is the perception in relatively wealthy regions that they are having to sibsidise poorer regions, or that the central government is transferring resource-based wealth out of the region. There are also many ethnic populations that reside in countries adjacent to their titular 'homeland', to which they would like to belong. Even in homogenous countries where ethnic differences are not the issue, there will be more demands to decentralise power.