Russia's Import Ban: Where Are The Opportunities?
On August 7, Russia introduced a one-year ban on imports of certain agricultural products from the US, EU, Canada, Australia and Norway. In light of the sanctions, we outlined our initial view on the major winners and losers of the decision, as well as the impact on the Russian consumer and economy (see 'Limited Overall Impact From Import Ban', August 8). In this analysis, we highlight the countries, sectors and sub-sectors which stand to benefit the most from Russia's ban.
Meat Provides The Biggest Opportunity
As a result of the ban, Russia will have to find import markets for about 40% of its agricultural imports, and 4% of its total imports. In 2013, agricultural imports accounted for 10.4% of total imports (USD terms). The table below shows the percentage of total agricultural imports by category that will be lost if new trade partners are not found for Russia. The biggest opportunities exist in categories at the top of the table, which we identify as imports of meat, dairy, fruit and nuts and fish. Throughout the article, the trade figures we quote are from 2013 and in USD terms.