Prices Softening But Geopolitical Risks Remain

BMI View: We maintain our above consensus 2014 average price forecasts for Brent and WTI at USD109.8/bbl and USD102.0/bbl respectively. We note risks to the downside due to a reasonably well supplied global market, but we refrain from downgrading our forecasts as a number of geopolitical events are still in flux and therefore pose significant upside risks to pricing over the remainder of 2014.

Brent - Weakening But With High Risks

We maintain our 2014 Brent forecast at USD109.8/bbl for the time being, given the potential impact of geopolitical developments that remain unresolved. That said, we note downside risk driven by improving supply and reduced demand in the Atlantic market for light sweet blends. We therefore reiterate and maintain our view that prices will soften in the medium-term.

Volatility Returning To Brent
Front-Month Brent Crude - Daily (USD/bbl)

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This article is tagged to:
Sector: Oil & Gas, Commodities
Geography: Global