Power: Gas Down, Coal And Imports Up
BMI View : We have revised down our 2014 electricity generation forecast for Thailand to account for the decline in gas-fired generation, which is brought on by shutdowns and maintenance of several gas fields. We have also made material revisions to our long-term forecasts to reflect the country's new power development plan, such as a downward revision to our long-term gas-fired generation forecasts and an upward revision to our coal-fired generation forecasts. Overall, the country is likely to increase its reliance on electricity imports to satisfy electricity consumption, which is a trend we had previously predicted.
We have revised down our 2014 electricity generation growth forecast for Thailand from 4.6% to 2.7%. This moderation was prompted by news of upcoming shutdowns and maintenance of several gas fields which will negatively affect gas-fired generation.
In November 2013, Thai state utility Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) announced that several major gas fields would be undergoing maintenance activities in 2014. Gas-fired generation accounts for approximately 70% of the country's electricity mix, and the disruptions to gas supply will have a noticeable impact on total generation. Some of the planned shutdowns include:
Gas Forecasts Moderated And Imports Boosted Thailand: Power Generation And Imports, TWh