Positive Uranium Outlook Good For Budget Balance
BMI View: We forecast that Niger's budget balance will return to a deficit in 2014, although it will remain at a manageable level. Income will be boosted by a positive outlook for the extractive industries, though foreign grants will remain essential.
Niger enjoyed a budget surplus in 2013, at 0.1% of GDP. Although we expect the budget balance to return to deficit in 2014, at 2.3% of GDP, it will remain at a manageable level over the next several years. Government coffers will benefit from the nascent oil sector; an expected recovery in uranium prices, and a new deal struck with French mining firm Areva. Nevertheless, the country remains one of the poorest in the world, regularly coming near the bottom in a host of global development indices, and we expect that it will remain reliant on foreign grants to meet its fiscal expenditure.
Strong Commitment To Capital Expenditure
|Return To Deficit|
|Niger - Budget Balance, USDbn (LHS) % % GDP, (RHS)|