Political Risks Remain Elevated Despite Erdogan Victory
BMI View: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain the de-facto leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the driving force of its policy agenda after assuming the presidency on August 28. This implies a continued drive to consolidate influence over the central bank, judiciary and media that will keep social and political tensions elevated and pose key risks to financial stability.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in the first round of Turkey's first ever direct presidential elections on August 10, in line with our expectations. Erdogan won 52% of the vote according to preliminary projections, which despite being lower than most polling data suggested, is nonetheless sufficient to reaffirm his mandate. Erdogan will have to step down as head of his Islamist-leaning AKP by August 28, when he officially takes on his new role for a five-year term.
Change Of Office, Little Change In Role
|Erdogan Still Dominating Ballot Box|
|Turkey - AKP Vote Shares With Erdogan As Party Leader, %|