Our Political Risk Track Record In H1 2013
BMI View: Below is a commentary on our political risk track record in the first half (H1) of 2013. The document provides a general overview of our coverage, and it is not intended to list every single country prediction or development in major states.
General comments: The first half of 2013 was another busy time for political risk (although frankly, we are hard-pressed to think of periods that are not busy). Most recently, we have seen major protests in Turkey and Brazil, and a popular uprising and military intervention that deposed the Egyptian president. Other big events included Italy's post-election deadlock of February-April, the Korean 'crisis' or war scare of March-April, the power transition in Venezuela in March-April, and the Iranian presidential election in June. We also saw continued fighting in Syria, and Western intervention in Mali. Arguably, though, there were no 'new' shocks to the international system in the first half of this year. In fact, at the end of March, we correctly argued that the biggest risks, namely Italy, Cyprus (both in relation to the eurozone's broader stability), Korea, Iran, and Syria, would be contained for the time being.
Country Predictions (Listed By Alphabetical Order)