Opportunity In Japan's Soft Drinks Market
Buoyed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's proactive economic policies, the outlook for Japan's soft drinks sector appears bright. BMI recently revised its forecast for the country's 2013 real GDP growth to 1.8%, up from previous projections of 1.4%. With this in mind, we believe that the soft drinks sector will deliver a compound annual growth rate of 3.5% for the years between 2012 and 2017. Though industry leaders have turned their attention to expansion in the rest of the world, in our view there is continued incentive to deliver innovative new products to Japan's wealthy population.
Suntory's recent acquisition of Lucozade and Ribena for US$2.1bn demonstrates how Japanese beverage suppliers are looking to diversify their business away from the aging Japanese market. Indeed, the overseas sales of the two largest domestic soft drinks manufacturers, Kirin and Suntory, account for 30% and 21% of their total sales respectively. With almost half of the population forecast to be older than 65 by 2025, it is understandable why many believe the Japanese soft drinks sector has little growth potential. That said, this aging and wealthy population offers some key opportunities from which producers can benefit in the domestic market.
Health drinks represent one of these opportunities. Ito En, the largest provider of ready-to-drink tea in Japan, promotes the concepts of 'natural' and 'healthy' as fundamental to its product base. With tea remaining as the most popular Japanese staple, The Coca-Cola Company last year recorded 33.1% sales growth for its healthy, sugar-free Ayataka tea. PepsiCo also released a cola described, controversially, as 'fat blocking'. Companies are also developing new carbonated beverages with added 'healthier' extracts of ingredients such as ginger and black bean.
|Soft Drink Sales Growth To Outperform|
|Japan - Soft Drink Sales & Nominal GDP|