Mosul's Takeover Increases Risks Of Civil War
BMI View: Risks of a return to civil war in Iraq increased significantly as radical Islamist group ISIS took over northern city of Mosul. The Iraqi army will have to engage in a protracted fight before it can retake the city, and ISIS will come out of its takeover of Mosul significantly more powerful as a result. The takeover will result in increasing risks to regional stability, and Iraqi Prime Minister's Nouri al-Maliki will likely lose much of its political clout as a result.
Risks of a return to civil war in Iraq have increased significantly following the takeover by radical Islamist militants of the northern city of Mosul - the country's second largest urban centre - on June 10. Hundreds of armed men linked to the radical Jihadist organisation Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) seized local government's offices and police stations before taking control of the airport and the army's headquarters. Militants reportedly seized military hardware, including helicopters, and stormed the Badousha prison. Iraqi security forces suffered a dramatic collapse of morale, despite outnumbering ISIS fighters by more than 15-to-1.
The occupation of Mosul represents a threat to Iraq's fundamental stability. We have decreased Iraq's short-term political risk ratings from 36.9 to 35.2 out of 100, owing to a deterioration in the "policy-making process" and "security" subcomponents. Risks that the country will fall back into full blown civil war have increased significantly as a result.
|Kurdistan At Risk From Mosul's Takeover|
|Iraq - Map|