Morocco & Tunisia To Outperform In Regional Recovery
BMI View : We expect Morocco and Tunisia to be the outperformers in North Africa as the region experiences an acceleration in real GDP growth over the period to 2018. Algeria and Libya will continue to be hamstrung by political paralysis and a dire security situation, respectively, while in Egypt, a degree of policy continuity as well as low base effects will herald a modest uptick in growth. Economic activity in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco will be increasingly investment-led as government and private consumption growth lag.
We forecast an acceleration in economic growth across North Africa in the period to 2018 after three years of relative stagnation in the wake of the Arab Spring. We expect Morocco and Tunisia to be the outperformers, witnessing strong growth in fixed investment and exports, partly due to relative political stability compared with the rest of the region. We forecast average real GDP growth of 3.8% in 2014-2018 for the four North African countries excluding Libya. While this figure is below our forecast for the Gulf countries at 4.0%, it is a notable uptick from growth of 2.9% in 2010-2013.
Morocco will undergo the most broad-based and sustainable economic growth, with promise in the tourism and agriculture sectors. Trade links between Morocco and Francophone West Africa should also deepen over the rest of the decade, a trend that will boost Morocco's net exports (see 'Morocco - West Africa: Abundant Opportunities,' April 22). Overall, we forecast average Moroccan real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2014-2018, behind only Tunisia.
|Pickup Across Region|
|North Africa - Real GDP Growth, %|