Instability Damages Long-Term Oil Outlook
BMI View : We have grown increasingly bearish on Libya's oil outlook. We see high volatility in output over the next six to 18 months, stemming from ongoing political instability, and expect the unstable security situation and falling investment levels to weigh on production growth across our 10-year forecast period.
A Volatile Short-term Outlook -
This quarter we have revised our Libya oil production forecasts downwards, from 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 350,000b/d in 2014 and from 950,000b/d to 700,000b/d in 2015.
|Libyan Unplanned Supply Outages ('000b/d)|