Hopes for Quick Return To Democracy Destroyed By Crackdown

BMI View: The violent crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood supporters has dealt a serious blow to the chances of political reconciliation in Egypt and will only further widen the political division s in the country. Events are also indicative of the army's increasing control over the country, and while we do not expect a descent into civil war , the army will most likely become the main political force in Egypt .

The violence surrounding the Egyptian army's dispersion of protestors at the Rabaa al-Adawiya and Nahda sites in Cairo will have profound negative implications for the country's political future and security situation , and destroys any chance of a quick return to civilian democratic rule . Since the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood in early July, we have held a view that the optimism reflected in most analysis and the financia l markets was overly optimistic. Nonetheless , the events of August 14 appear to be close to a worst case scenario for the country. The latest government figures state that 525 people have been killed, whilst the Muslim Brotherhood's estimates place the figure above 2,000. Either way, it is clear that this is one of the highest death tolls Egypt has experienced, possibly surpassing the bloodiest days in the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

Army's Control Will Only Increase

Falling Down The Rankings
Egypt - Short-term Political Risk Ratings

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This article is tagged to:
Sector: Country Risk
Geography: Egypt, Egypt, Egypt, Egypt

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