Over our forecast period to 2017, we expect volume growth in carbonated drinks and bottled water, the two main components of Poland's soft drinks industry, to continue growing strongly. Compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) in both segments, which together are expected to account for about 130 litres of per capita soft drinks consumption in 2013, are forecast to remain strong over our five-year forecast period compared with the 2006-2011 period. Between 2012 and 2017, carbonates and bottled water volume sales are forecast to grow at CAGRs of 4.4% and 6.7% respectively.
|Good Growth Ahead|
|Poland Carbonated Soft Drinks and Bottled Water Sales - Historic & Forecast|
The carbonates and bottled water industries have grown fantastically over the past 10 or so years as rising incomes and significant investment into Poland from firms such as Coca-Cola Hellenic has pushed up consumption levels. However, it also true that premiumisation and innovation will be particularly important as incomes rise over the long term.
We also see less developed parts of the soft drinks industry growing more quickly from much lower bases than water and juices. Rising incomes and health-consciousness will very likely provide plenty for the wider industry to work with. Sales of juices and functional drinks, including energy drinks, are expected to do well, especially as they attract more investment. In Western Europe in particular, the traditional low-cost carbonates segment has been maturing for some time.
While innovation and powerful branding has meant that carbonates have continued to do fairly well in many countries, with diet drinks becoming more popular, the take-off in functional drinks has perhaps been one of the strongest developments. With overall soft drink consumption in Poland not too far from the levels in much of the EU region, and given the fact that Poland is expected to be one of the best performing economies in Europe over the next few years, higher-value soft drinks, be it more premiumised juices/smoothies or energy drinks, are the most likely to attract investmen t.