Growth For Southern Africa Pharmaceutical Markets In 2014
BMI View: The pharmaceutical markets of Southern Africa are becoming increasingly penetrated by international drugmakers due to their large populations and economic development allowing for better financial and geographical access to healthcare services, and the region's continued heavy reliance on imported medicines. BMI's pharmaceutical expenditure model reveals that Namibia and Angola will experience the fastest local currency increase in medicine sales in 2014 of 13.4% and 11.4% respectively.
BMI forecasts that the pharmaceutical markets of Southern Africa - Angola, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and South Africa - will experience growth in 2014 on the back of investment in healthcare infrastructure, government support for expansion of medical services, foreign direct investment by drugmakers and rising household incomes. The largest market in the region by some way is South Africa, with an estimated value of US$3.5bn in 2013, followed by Namibia (US$264mn), Zimbabwe (US$233mn), Zambia (US$207mn), Angola (US$204mn), Botswana (US$194mn) and Mozambique (US$184mn).
We forecast 2014 growth of 6-14% in local currency terms for all countries in Southern Africa. However, BMI highlights that the foreign drugmakers with no direct presence in the sub-region will have their repatriated US dollar revenues negatively impacted by currency fluctuations in 2014. BMI's Country Risk team estimates that all currencies in Southern Africa (with the exception of Zimbabwe, which has adopted the US dollar) will depreciate against the US dollar next year.
|Namibia On Top|
|Local Currency 2014 Growth Rates In Southern Africa Pharmaceutical Markets|