Global Tourism Overview

BMI View : The global tourist accommodation sector will greatly benefit from the rise in international tourist arrivals forecasted from 2013-2017. The growing number of outbound and domestic-based tourists from Asia and Latin America has provided great incentives for the tourist accommodation sector to increase the number of hotels and rooms on offer across these regions. Even though underlying economic risk remains, over the next five years we estimate annual growth in total hotel units to be within 3-5% from 2013 to 2017.

Despite the difficult global economic picture, international tourist arrivals are expected to grow across 2013. Historically the number of tourists has been rising year on year in eight out of the ten years from 2002-2012, the only fall being in 2009 due to the global economic crisis. In 2012, International tourist arrivals grew by 4.3% in 2012, we saw positive growth stemming from a number of factors including tourists taking advantage of a weaker euro to travel to eurozone states, as well as a growing middle class in Asia who have an increasing inclination to travel abroad. We expect this trend to continue. BMI estimates that international tourist arrivals will report growth of 4.1% at the end of 2013, an increase of 38.6 million tourists to 971.1 million from 2012 across BMI's tourism universe. We forecast that annual growth in international tourists arrivals will remain between 4-5% for the next five years from 2013 to 2017.

Global Tourism Indicators, International Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2017
2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
WORLD: Total Arrivals mn* 783.1 840.9 894.3 932.5 971.1 1019.1 1068.7 1121.1 1170.5
WOLRD: Total Arrivals mn, % change y-o-y -4.9 7.4 6.3 4.3 4.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.4

Growing tourist arrivals driving tourist accommodation

With international tourist arrivals set to grow from 2013-2017, the global tourist accommodation sector will look to support the increase in number of tourists through the construction of new hotel units. Across the world the tourist accommodation sector is likely to face stiff competition, and competitors look set to enhance market share through pricing, aesthetics by introducing wide scale renovations and, mass branding and marketing initiatives in the emerging markets. Over the last few years financial markets have seen an inflow of capital and the tourist accommodation sector has taken advantage of this by taking the opportunity to use leverage to initiate wide-ranging hotel renovations and construct new accommodation. Historically the level of total hotel units globally has been volatile, 2010 posted an increase of 3.7%, in 2011 total units slowed down to 0.9% and in 2012 total units increased again by 1.7%. Internationally we see the tourist accommodation sector increasing the number of hotel units across 2013 by 2.2% to 1.099 million units in total by the end of the year. From 2014-2017, BMI forecasts that annual growth in total hotel units to be between 2-2.5%.

global tourism indicators, hotel and establishment units, 2009-2017
2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
WORLD: Number of hotels
and establishments, '000* 1011.1 1048.8 1058.6 1076.5 1099.8 1124.0 1149.2 1176.6 1205.9
WORLD: Number of hotels
and establishments, '000, % change y-o-y 4.9 3.7 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5

Regionally, Latin America is set to perform the best, with forecasted growth in total hotel units to be 4.32% in 2013 and 4.35% in 2014. High numbers of growth are dominated by the growing trend in inbound arrivals within the region, and the rise of domestic tourism in countries such as Brazil. Over the same forecast period Brazil will see a surge in new hotel developments in preparation for the 2014 FIFA World Cup to be staged in twelve cities across the country and 2016 Olympics to take place in Rio de Janeiro. Over the last few years in the Asia-Pacific region there have been many large scale hotel development projects. With rising middle classes in parts of Asia such as China and India, people are more likely than ever to travel for leisure. The tourist accommodation sector in the region is likely to capitalize on the greater number of outbound travellers from these countries and provide a greater number of hotels and facilities to offer guests. In 2012, total hotel units increased by 153,358 or 3.8% from 2011. Over the next five years from 2013 to 2017, BMI forecasts the region to grow over 4% annually. In isolation, total hotel units in China and India have grown by an annual average of 12.87% and 18.36% respectively over the last five years from 2012. This is on the back of strong rising levels of domestic tourists and international arrivals that are now attracted by the better infrastructure and facilities on offer at hotels. For 2013 we forecast annual growth of 9% for China and 13% for India. International hotel chains Marriot International, Starwood Hotels & Resorts and Hilton Worldwide have outlined expansion plans in China. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, now have 100 hotels in the country and are another 100 have been outlined. Marriot is looking to double its share of hotels within the country by 2014.

Elsewhere, BMI estimates that total European hotel units will show annual growth of 0.5% for 2012. This lower pace of growth is largely generated by a 0.1% fall in total hotel units across Western Europe for the same period. Falls in domestic income have led to a decrease in domestic hotel demand and a shorter length of stay by international guests have fallen under 4 nights in 2012 for the first time in ten years. Across the region, many unprofitable hotel units have been closed and others have been relocated. Over the next five years from 2013, we expect this trend to continue, and estimate total hotel units will grow in the range of 0.5-1% annually. In the Middle East, BMI estimates a bounce back in hotel construction in 2013 buoyed by a general lift in construction activity within the region, total hotel units will increase by 2.1%.

Hotel rooms also set to increase

For 2013, BMI forecasts that the total number of hotels rooms internationally will grow by 3.3%. The growth in the total number of rooms will be boosted twofold, firstly by new hotel construction which will increase the global stock levels of rooms and secondly by the restructuring and renovation of existing hotel units that will provide greater rooms. BMI forecasts strong growth in the total number of hotel rooms in Latin-America to be 5-8% annually over the next five years from 2013 to 2017. In other regions Europe will grow by 1.5-2%, North America by 1.5-1.6%, Asia by 2-5% and the Middle East by 2-5% over the same forecast horizon.

Room occupancy rates to remain steady

Hotel room occupancy rates remain traditionally high in city based states and locations due to the lack of availability of new land for new hotel construction. Singapore and Hong Kong remain the best with rates of 86.5% and 82.37% recorded in 2011 and BMI estimates this to be around this level at the end of 2012 and going forward into 2013. Regionally higher occupancy rates are seen in Asia, Europe and North America. Globally occupancy rates are estimated to remain between 50-60% over the next five years from 2013 to 2017, where growing room occupation will be counteracted by growth in hotel rooms.

Overnights stays rising in Asia and Middle East

At the end of 2011 total overnight stays internationally saw contractions of 1.6% in North America and 1.9% in Europe from 2010. Africa also noted a contraction of over 6% during the same period with only Asia, Middle East and Latin America showing growth. Trends in Europe and North America remain subdued with hotels in major western cities a lot pricier than emerging market equivalents. In 2012, average length of stay in Western Europe decreased to under 4 nights, the lowest it has been in a decade. We expect this trend to continue and forecast average length of stay to remain under 4 nights from 2013 to 2017. Globally, BMI forecasts total overnight stays to grow at over 3% annually from 2013 to 2017, weakness in Western Europe will be more than counteracted by strong growth in overnight stays within the Middle East and Asia. Overnight stays in Middle East will grow by 9% in 2013, and by 3.8% in Asia over the same period. These regions will benefit from the growing number of tourist arrivals from neighbouring nations.

Tourist accommodation sector remains sensitive to economic fundamentals

To take stock, there still remains significant underlying risk to the tourist accommodation sector, any impending global economic slowdown that constricts disposable income will lead to a reduction in future international tourist arrivals. This in turn will lead to a situation of over capacity in the tourist accommodation sector which may result in losses if hotel rooms are left unoccupied. If macroeconomic fundamentals are to improve this will translate into an increase in international tourist arrivals and provide greater incentive for further tourist accommodation construction.

Global Sporting Calendar, 2013-2022
Year Country City/Cities Event Sport
Source: BMI Key Projects Database
2013 Russia Moscow IAAF World Championship Athletics Mixed
2013 South Africa Rustenburg, Johannesburg, Nelspruit, Durban, Port Elizabeth, Africa Cup of Nations Football
2013 Brazil Unconfirmed but short list is: Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Brasilia, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro FIFA Confederations Cup Football
2013 Myanmar Naypidaw Asia Games Mixed
2013 Sweden Malmo Eurovision Song Contest Singing
2013 Czech republic Prague UEFA Super Cup Football
2013 England London UEFA Champions League Final Football
2014 Bangladesh Dhaka, Chittagong, Narayaganj, Rajshahi, Sylhet, Khulna, 2020 World Cup Cricket
2014 Brazil Manaus, Fortaleza, Natal, Recife, Salvador, Brasilia, Cuiba, Belo Horizonte, Sao Paolo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba, Porto Alegre FIFA World Cup Football
2014 Wales Cardiff UEFA Super Cup Football
2014 Scotland Auchterarder, Gleneagles Ryder Cup Golf
2014 Russia Sochi, Krasnaya Polyana Winter Olympics Mixed
2014 Scotland Glasgow Commonwealth Games Mixed
2014 China Nanjing Youth games (Summer) Mixed
2014 South Korea Incheon Asian Games Mixed
2014 Portugal Lisbon UEFA Champions League Final
2015 Australia and New Zealand Not Decided Cricket World Cup Cricket
2015 England Cardiff, London, Birmingham, Brighton, Bristol, Coventry, Derbyy, Gloucester, Leeds, Leicester, Manchester, Milton Keynes, New Castle, Southampton, Sunderland Rugby World Cup Rugby
2015 Canada Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Montreal, and Moncton FIFA Women's World Cup Football
2015 Canada Toronto Pan American Games Mixed
2015 Morocco Casablanca, Rabat, Fes, Marrakesh, Tangier, Agadir Africa Cup of Nations Football
2015 Georgia Tibilisi UEFA Super Cup Football
2015 Singapore Not Decided Asian Games Mixed
2015 Australia Melbourne, Sydney Brisbane Canberra Asia Cup Football
2016 France Lens, Lille, Paris, Bourdeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Nice, Toulouse, St-Etienne UEFA Euro Football
2016 Brazil Rio de Janeiro Olympics Mixed
2016 India Not Decided 2020 World Cup Cricket
2016 USA Chaska Ryder Cup Golf
2016 Norway Lillehammer Youth Games (Winter) Mixed
2017 Libya Not Decided Africa Cup of Nations Football
2017 England London IAAF World Championship Athletics Mixed
2017 Russia Moscow, Kazhan, Sochi, St Petersburg FIFA Confederations Cup Football
2018 Russia Kaliningrad, Kazan, Krasnodar, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Saint Petersburg, Samara, Saransk, Sochi, Volgograd, Yaroslavl, Yekaterinburg FIFA World Cup Football
2018 South Korea Pyeongchang Winter Olympics Mixed
2018 Australia Gold Coast City Commonwealth Games Mixed
2018 France Paris Ryder Cup Golf
2019 England & Wales Not Decided Cricket World Cup Cricket
2019 Japan Tokyo, Sapporo, Yokohama, Osaka, Toyota, Kobe, Fukuoka, Sendai Rugby World Cup Rugby
2020 USA Sheboygan Ryder Cup Golf
2021 Qatar Not Decided FIFA Confederations Cup Football
2022 Qatar Al-Khor, Doha, Ash-Shamal, Al Wakrah, Umm Salar, Al Rayyan FIFA World Cup Football
This article is tagged to:
Sector: Tourism
Geography: Poland, Poland, Poland, Poland

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