Global Themes: Trade Is The 'Sick Man' Of Global Demand

Global trade growth has collapsed to the low single-digits, compared to rates between 10-30% leading up to the crisis and during the post-crisis rebound. We see the two driving factors behind this worrying decline as resistance to global rebalancing and the creeping tide of protectionism.

  • The Ukraine situation, which has led to speculation of potential economic and/or selected trade sanctions on Russia, presents near-term risks to global trade.

  • Although China's exports have held up well, Asia's other export powerhouses have fared poorly of late. As the year progresses, Chinese export shipments are likely to join in the regional contraction. Falling commodity prices are putting pressure on exports in Africa and Latin America.

  • A DM And EM Story
    Global - Goods Exports, % chg y-o-y

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    This article is tagged to:
    Sector: Country Risk
    Geography: Global, Ukraine, Russia