Global Commodities Strategy
A decisive push above USD19,000/tonne by nickel prices illustrates renewed impetus for H114 rally and USD22,000/tonne looks attainable in the coming weeks. We continue to forecast weakness in H214 as we expect Indonesia's incoming government to water down the country's nickel ore export ban.
Gold and silver prices will remain choppy in Q214 due to ongoing geopolitical tension in eastern Ukraine. Prices will trend lower in H214 and we expect gold to move below USD1,200/oz before the end of the year.
We expect increasing divergence in the price performance of different industrials over the next 12 months. We are most bearish towards iron ore and copper and in contrast, expect lead and tin to outperform.
|Into A New Range|
|Three-Month LME Nickel, USD/tonne (Weekly, RSI Below)|