Full Impact Of Ebola Yet To Be Felt

BMI View : Weak state capacity and poor public health infrastructure will hamper efforts to contain the escalating Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Meanwhile, restrictions on the movement of goods, people and money will prove increasingly disruptive to economic activity.

A Grim Picture

Since the first officially reported case in Guinea on March 21, the West Africa Ebola outbreak has spread to four countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and, most recently, Nigeria). At the time of writing it is thought to have infected over 1,600 people and killed more than 900, and we expect these numbers to steadily rise over the coming weeks as governments and foreign aid agencies battle to contain the spread of the virus. With no known vaccine or pharmaceutical in the imminent pipeline that has been proven to control or cure Ebola, the authorities will be forced to rely on traditional public health methods, namely through the isolation of cases ( see 'Ebola Outbreak Raises Development Possibilities', August 6). While it is impossible to predict how much further - and for how much longer - the virus will spread, we believe that efforts to contain the outbreak will be hampered by weak state capacity, lack of public funding and poor health infrastructure. The rising number of cases in Nigeria is a growing concern and underlines the potential for the disease to spread to new countries.

Further To Rise 
West Africa Ebola Outbreak 2014 (LHS) & Ebola Outbreaks 1976-2014 (RHS)

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This article is tagged to:
Sector: Country Risk, Mining, Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Geography: Africa, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone

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