Expo Win To Provide Decade-Long Boost For Dubai
BMI View: We have raised our already bullish forecast for Dubai's economy on the back of the winning the nomination for the World Expo 2020. Hosting the Expo will provide a significant boost to the emirate's construction, real estate and tourism industries, whilst also having the less tangible effect of boosting Dubai's cultural profile globally. We now forecast Dubai's real GDP growth to average 4.3% over the period to 2017, from our previous estimate of 4.1%.
We have raised our forecasts for Dubai's economy on the back of the emirate winning the nomination to host the World Expo 2020. We now forecast Dubai's real GDP growth to average 4.3% over the period to 2017, from our previous estimate of 4.1%. The government in Dubai say the Expo 2020 will bring in around US$23bn over the coming decade and create around 277,000 jobs. These figures are difficult to verify but would represent a significant boost to the already booming economy as GDP for the emirate is currently around US$130bn and total employment stands at 1.3mn people. We expect Dubai to increasingly become the key driver of the UAE's economic growth in the coming quarters as the emirate's non-oil sector expands substantially, especially given the economic boost of holding the Expo. In contrast, we expect Abu Dhabi will see GDP growth constrained by moderate increases in oil output and lower oil prices.
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