Elections Offer Upside To Oil Exports
BMI View: The outcome of the June 25 Libyan parliamentary elections is uncertain and volatility in Libyan oil production will continue. That said, if Haftar won a legitimate majority and secured control of parliament this would pose upside risks to oil exports due to the former General's support from rebels holding export terminals in the East. With instability in Iraq causing jitters in the oil market, Libya's 1mn b/d of production upside will play a crucial role in shaping global crude prices over the remainder of 2014.
On Sunday June 15, production from Libya's El Feel field was reportedly restarted after two months of protests had kept the field offline. The 80,000 barrel per day (b/d) field will bring much needed respite to production levels in Libya, which have struggled at around 200,000b/d due to instability. It will also help to soften the impact of the geopolitical premium being priced-in to global crude benchmarks due to the insurgency in Iraq.
Protests Depleting Financial Reserves
|Struggling For Consistency|
|Libya Monthly Oil Production (000b/d)|