Economic Recovery To Gain Traction In The Coming Months
BMI View: The Mexican economy will accelerate in the coming quarters, following weak growth in 2013 and most of Q114. The main drivers of stronger growth will be greater manufacturing sector production and a recovery in the construction sector. An improvement in both sectors will bolster labour market dynamics and contribute to stronger household spending this year.
Mexican economic activity will pick up in the coming quarters, driven by a rapid expansion of manufacturing sector output and a recovery in the construction sector. Both sectors are key generators of employment, and we expect a decline in unemployment will drive stronger household spending this year. We forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.3% this year from 1.1% in 2013. Real GDP growth in Q114 came in between 1.5% and 2.0%, which implies we expect growth to average between 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 3.9% y-o-y in Q214 -Q414 in order to hit our full year forecast.
Stronger US Demand Will Support Manufacturing
|Economic Activity Growth Will Improve Notably In Q214|
|Mexico - Industrial Production and Economic Activity (IGAE) Indices|