CEE Risk/Reward Ratings: Political Instability To Weaken Rewards
BMI View: Our ranking table for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) remains broadly unchanged this quarter. Unsurprisingly, the main changes have been reported in the score of Turkey, Russia and Ukraine where political stability has taken a hit. However, outside these countries our CEE RRRs reflect a degree of stability in the region evidenced by an improved regional average score. Having considerably improved its overall score, Poland has climbed to the top position in our rankings, outperforming Estonia. In turn, Ukraine remains at the bottom of the table - a situation unlikely to improve in the short term.
We believe that the worst is over for the construction industry in the region, after it suffered considerably due to the effects of the global financial crisis. That said, governments in CEE are still cash strapped and securing financing for infrastructure will remain a significant obstacle to project realisation - weighing on rewards scores across the region. In addition, our expectations for construction industry growth are still moderate and the risks of investing in some countries in the region have intensified as a result of corruption scandals and political instability.
Key Views In Our Central And Eastern Europe (CEE) Risk Reward Ratings (RRRs):
Poland Newly Acquired Leadership CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings