CEE: Gas Prospects Stronger, As Regional Dynamics Evolve
BMI View: Our forecasts suggest that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will see a strong increase in both oil and gas consumption. We also expect growth in gas production and exports, though underlying the aggregate trade balance is a clear divide between net importers in Eastern Europe and net exporters in Russia and the Central Asian countries. Diversification of gas imports thus remains a key strategy for Eastern Europe, while Russia and Central Asian countries look to East Asia for new growth markets.
The key themes that have emerged in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)'s oil and gas forecasts are:
The regional production outlook is more positive for gas than oil. Regional gas output is expected to rise on an average of 9.8% compared to an increase of around 4.5% in oil output over our 10-year forecast period between 2013 and 2022. Net importers and exporters alike could see substantial rises in output from greenfield projects particularly from offshore production.
Gas Set To Perform Better Regional Oil Production (LHC, '000b/d) & Gas Production (RHC, bcm), 2010-2022