Border Clashes: No Significant Long-Term Risk
BMI View: Border clashes between Rwandan and Congolese forces pose little risk to regional security. Occasional clashes will continue, but an escalation to a broader military conflict is highly unlikely.
A series of armed skirmishes along the border between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has killed at least one Congolese soldier, increasing tensions in the volatile region. Even so, BMI doubts that the violence poses a systemic risk to regional security. Neither Rwanda nor the DRC has an incentive to further escalate the situation; we expect that relatively low-level clashes will continue but not lead to a larger-scale conflict.
Poor Border Demarcation Facilitates Clashes
|Great Lakes - Eastern DRC & Rwanda|