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The Return of Commodity-Driven Inflation

Commodity prices will shift from being a drag on global inflation readings to a positive driver of inflation by the end of 2016. Year-on-year changes for key commodities including oil and grains will...

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Stagflation Risks are Rising

Developed market inflationary pressures have been surprisingly subdued over recent years in spite of the robust money supply growth we have seen throughout the world and persistent efforts by...

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Crucial Decisions Approaching

Global political risks in the remainder of 2016 will be dominated by the US presidential election, the UK's 'Brexit' referendum, the war against Islamist terrorism, and ongoing 'great power' rivalry.

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Megatrends to 2050

The main megatrends in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050 will include an increasingly prominent services sector; slowly expanding middle class; huge growth in mobile financial services; greater...

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Global Political Risks: Megatrends to 2050

We expect the 'world order' to become considerably more disorderly between now and 2050. The US-led international system is giving way to a multi-polar world; dozens of countries will face growing...

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