Another Contraction Forecast, But Timid Recovery Coming
BMI View: We expect a seventh consecutive year of contraction in France's construction industry in 2014, when we forecast -1.2% real growth. This represents a slight recovery from the -2.1% we saw in 2013, indicating that the worst may be over for the industry. In this context, it is our view that transport infrastructure projects will lead a return to positive construction industry growth from 2015 onwards.
Challenging Macroeconomic Environment Remains
Despite our view for a return to growth in France's construction industry in 2015 on the back of low base effects and a more positive economic outlook for France and the eurozone, the risks to our forecasts lie to the downside. Major investments in the short term will remain limited as large fixed capital investments in new factories, offices and commercial space are postponed until there is a more positive business environment prevailing.
|Industry Recession To Continue|
|Construction Industry Value LHS And Real Growth RHS (2008-2018)|