New Zealand

In-depth country-focused analysis on New Zealand's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

New Zealand

Our comprehensive assessment of New Zealand's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect New Zealand, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact New Zealand's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in New Zealand before your competitors.

Country Risk

New Zealand Country Risk

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Core Views

  • The New Zealand economy is experiencing a gradual deleveraging cycle, which will weigh on real GDP growth over the coming years. While declining oil prices will provide some support to corporate profit margins and economic activity, these positives will likely be offset by the joint deterioration in the dairy and construction sectors, which remain the two key pillars of the economy.

  • New Zealand's fiscal accounts remain in better health compared with most developed market economies. The government posted a budget surplus equivalent to 0.3% of GDP for FY2014/15 (July-June), fulfilling its promise made in 2011 to return the government's accounts to positive territory by FY2014/15. We expect the country's fiscal surplus to continue growing over the coming years, and this will be supported by continued spending restraint, which should keep...

New Zealand Industry Coverage (14)

Agribusiness

New Zealand Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium-to-long term. This will be supportive for both the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity. However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to low prices on the international market, as well as herd rebuilding. We believe prices will pick up again later in 2017...

Autos

New Zealand Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: The combination of a slowing economy and a weakening dollar will lead to a slowdown in growth in New Zealand's new vehicle market.

Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
(2014-2020)
f = BMI forecast. Source: NZTA, BMI

Key Views

  • We maintain our forecast for 3.5% growth in total vehicle sales for 2016, supported by Q116 growth of 3.0% y-o-y.

  • Over our forecast...

Commercial Banking

New Zealand Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

Food & Drink

New Zealand Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: New Zealand's food and drink industry will experience robust growth throughout our forecast period to 2020, especially given existing sector maturity. Nonetheless, a small consumer base combined with a high degree of consolidation will limit room for new players.

Food & Drink Spending
(2013-2020)
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, national statistics

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

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Infrastructure

New Zealand Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: Growth in New Zealand's small construction industry will moderate over the next decade as the Christchurch rebuilding slows from its peak in 2015. An inflated housing market presents downside risks to the key residential construction sector, though the upwards building trend remains in place. The roads sector is booming, energy and utilities may require capacity expansion in the medium term and social infrastructure is providing several PPP opportunities.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • After good growth in the previous decade, the construction industry will moderate over 2016-2025. Construction industry value...

Insurance

New Zealand Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: We retain our view that the New Zealand insurance market is comparatively small by global standards and a subdued domestic economic outlook weighs in on premium growth prospects, in both the life and non-life sector through our forecast period out to 2020. The strengthening of the American dollar against the New Zealand dollar will also constrain dollar denominated premiums in both 2016 and 2017. We estimate that over the longer term, demand for key non-life lines, such as property and motor, will continue to remain high. However, we believe that demand for life productions, the smaller market at present, is expected...

Medical Devices

New Zealand Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI View : The strengthening of the US dollar has already affected import performance from the USA, the country's main supplier, and we maintain this trend will continue in the medium term, with a -0.6% CAGR market growth expected for the 2014-2019 period. The District Health Boards' focus on cost efficiency and a stronger policy on medical device reimbursement are likely to affect the growth prospects of the New Zealand medical device market in 2016 and beyond.

Total (USDmn) ...

Oil & Gas

New Zealand Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: Falling production and steady gains in consumption will maintain New Zealand's status as a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels over our forecast period to 2025. Low crude prices will allow the country to diversify its crude options and ease its heavy dependence on the Middle East. Gas imports remain unlikely, as a small consumer market and limited potential for large-scale consumption growth deter international investment.

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Headline Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

New Zealand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: New Zealand's updated Health Strategy draft will see limited improvement to the challenging business environment for innovative drugmakers. Cost minimisation continues to be a key aspect of the approach adopted, with the Pharmaceutical Management Agency maintaining its dominant role in curbing pharmaceutical spending. Nonetheless, there will be opportunities for other segments of the health industry, such as telecare, which is poised to play a critical role in enabling New Zealand to achieve its objectives.

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals: NZD1.45bn (USD1.20bn) in 2014 to NZD1.48bn (USD1.04bn) in 2015; 2.0% in local currency terms and -11.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

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Power

New Zealand Power

BMI View:

BMI View: New Zealand has a well developed domestic energy sector, home to a number of innovative and well-capitalised energy firms. Hydropower leads the energy mix, accounting for over half of domestic capacity and generation, alongside natural-gas fired thermal power plants and a growing non-hydropower renewables sector. The country is phasing out thermal power as it works towards a 90% renewable energy (hydropower and non-hydropower renewables) target by 2025. As such there is some concern relating to energy security if New Zealand fails to install sufficient new capacity before old thermal power plants are taken offline.

Headline Power Forecasts (New Zealand 2015-2021)
2015e ...

Renewables

New Zealand Renewables

BMI View:

BMI View: As capacity and generation growth of New Zealand's non-hydroelectric renewable sector is forecast to remain subdued in 2016, with rates of 0.11% and 1.87% respectively, new impetus is only expected to come from the retirement of thermal power plants by 2018. Stronger growth in the sector is further undermined by a decreasing energy demand and the lack of a governmental subsidy scheme supporting renewable installations to meet the countries energy and emission targets.

New Zealand - Headline Renewables Forecasts
...

Retail

New Zealand Retail

BMI View:

BMI View: New Zealand's mature retail sector will continue to attract major global retailers, keen to take advantage of an affluent and urbanised population. However, in the short term the industry is facing challenges as a result of the weak local currency, which is dragging down retail sales in US dollar terms. Over our forecast period the lion's share of retail spending will continue to go on essential items - particularly food and drink, housing and transport - although there are also opportunities elsewhere in the market, with new retail developments seeking to attract international fashion retailers in particular.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
...

Telecommunications

New Zealand Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : Efforts to roll-out wireline and mobile broadband infrastructure and services, including to a large proportion of underserved rural areas, will drive growth of New Zealand's telecoms market in the medium term. This will benefit the service provider sector as new customers are hard to come by and there is little more to be done in upselling premium services. The infrastructure aspect will prove most challenging as consumers will be slow to take full advantage of 3G/4G and fibre networks. Consolidation will continue as operators seek to tap into new markets.

Mobile Market Saturation Points Provide Opportunities In Multi-Play
New Zealand Mobile Market Forecasts
...

Tourism

New Zealand Tourism

BMI View:

BMI View: New Zealand's tourism industry is growing rapidly, supported by extensive government investment in both transport infrastructure and the accommodation sector, and visitor numbers are increasing steadily. A high degree of openness to foreign investment and the expanding inbound and domestic tourism markets are attracting various regional and international hotel developers, and a number of hotel projects are in the pipeline. As a long-haul destination for the vast majority of potential source markets, getting to New Zealand can be prohibitively expensive. Over the longer term, expansion of regional and international air travel connections will be vital to the sustainability of tourism growth.

Key Forecasts (New Zealand 2012-2019)
2012...

Latest New Zealand Articles

  • With global growth continuing to stutter amid unconvincing growth performan...

  • A few key themes stand out when comparing BMI's forecasts against Bloomberg...

  • We are generally below consensus on the inflation outlook for Asia in 2016,...

Latest New Zealand Podcasts

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