Our comprehensive assessment of Mozambique's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Mozambique, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Mozambique's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Mozambique before your competitors.

Country Risk

Mozambique Country Risk

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  • Opposition concerns about the Mozambican election's credibility are shared by many observers but the result - a victory of ruling party Frelimo - will not be overturned. A negotiated settlement, which gives Renamo leaders more status, will nonetheless be necessary. The chances of a successful agreement are bolstered by the consensus-based approach President-elect Felipe Nyussi.

  • Mozambique's growth forecasts are unchanged following the ruling party's widely-expected victory at October 2014 elections. However, the strong performance of the opposition increases security and policy risks, and these could result in lower growth than we are currently forecasting.

  • Mozambique's monetary policy committee will hold its key interest rate at 7.5% in 2015 as it balances low inflation and growth concerns...

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Mozambique Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Mozambique Operational Risk

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BMI View : Mozambique is one of the most attractive markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) on account of its promising economic outlook and investor-friendly business environment, combined with its long coastline and abundant natural resources. Nevertheless, the country is currently operating well below capacity on account of a crumbling internal transport network, a largely unskilled labour pool and a heightened political risk profile. This means that investors in the country must negotiate a number of obstacles in order to realise gains from Mozambique's growing economic potential. Consequently, Mozambique receives a score of 34.4 out of 100 for Operational Risk, placing 2...

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Mozambique Crime & Security

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BMI View : Foreign business travellers, expatriates and tourists face moderate crime and security risks in Mozambique. Foreign firms face the highest degree of risk from the re-emergence of political violence and instability, which may spread throughout the country and potentially disrupt operations. As foreigners, investors may also be targeted for criminal activities, from which businesses have limited protection due to the lack of an effective police force. However, this threat is moderated by the very low likelihood of interstate conflict, despite the small size of Mozambique's armed forces. Consequently, Mozambique receives a score of 36.5 out of 100 for Crime and Security Risks, placing 23rd in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region...

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Mozambique Labour Market

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BMI View : The labour market in Mozambique is uncompetitive by regional and global standards due to a general lack of education, combined with poor public health and strict quotas governing the hiring of foreign workers. Although Mozambique has favourable demographics, with 48.1% of the population between the ages of 15 and 54, the country has proved unable to convert its citizens into skilled labourers due to inadequate public service provision in health, education and poverty reduction. BMI sees little prospect of this situation improving over the medium term. As a result, Mozambique scores 29.3 out of 100 for overall Labour Market Risk, which places the country 41st out of 44 states in Sub-Saharan Africa...

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Mozambique Logistics

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BMI View : Mozambique suffers from a significant infrastructure deficit resulting from limited investment and the destruction wrought by the country's civil war (1795-1992), which inhibits the country's ability to meet growing national demand for transport. That being said, despite its limitations the country is still relatively well developed relative to many of its neighbours, enabling it to serve as a major transport player within regional and international supply chains. Notable benefits to foreign investors and businesses include a well-integrated maritime trade and airfreight infrastructure, limited trade bureaucracy, competitive lead times, and a burgeoning market in exports and imports. Taking these factors into consideration, BMI...

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Mozambique Trade & Investment

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BMI View: Foreign businesses in Mozambique are able to take advantage of the country's stable and rapidly growing economy, sizeable natural resources, tax incentives for new investors and relatively free trade environment. Equally, the government operates a generally favourable attitude to foreign investors and operates a number of free trade and special industrial zones across the country. Nevertheless, despite Mozambique's recent progress, a number of significant hurdles must be negotiated when conducting business in the country. The most pressing obstacles are a lack of access to credit facilities, inefficient bureaucracy and corruption within state institutions and the private sector. Taking these factors into consideration, BMI...

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Mozambique Industry Coverage (12)

Agribusiness

Mozambique Agribusiness

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Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the agribusiness sector of Mozambique, as the country is able to tap in to abundant and largely unexploited land and water resources. Of the utmost importance is boosting agricultural productivity by improving irrigation and introducing technology to small-scale farmers. The government has also highlighted the need to improve food and nutritional safety and to facilitate more...

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Autos

Mozambique Autos

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BMI View: BMI remains positive on the outlook for new vehicle sales in Mozambique. We forecast total sales to reach around 40,000 units by the end of our five year forecast period to 2019, double the levels seen in 2012. Commercial vehicle (CV) sales will continue to account for the lion's share of new vehicle sales. However, we expect passenger car sales to increase at a faster rate over the coming five years.

We have become increasingly bullish in our outlook for the Mozambique autos market for 2014, and we forecast 15.1% sales growth over the year. This comes from an expected 22.4% surge in passenger sales, and a 12% increase in the CV segment. We expect this positive momentum to continue into 2015, and we forecast total...

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Commercial Banking

Mozambique Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

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Food & Drink

Mozambique Food & Drink

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BMI View: Following the ceasefire between the opposition party Renamo and the government, private consumption growth will accelerate to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016. Because Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world, Mozambicans spend a great proportion of their income on food and drink. Therefore, GDP growth will translate into higher per capita food expenditure. We forecast per capita food consumption (local currency) to grow at a compound annual rate of 12.3% over 2014-...

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Freight Transport

Mozambique Freight Transport

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The outlook for Mozambique's freight transport sector is positive. The country is enjoying a period of robust economic growth of around 7.0%, which we expect to continue over our medium-term forecast period to 2019. An expanding consumer base will drive imports of containerised goods up slowly, while investment projects targeting the country's increasing exploitation of its natural recourses - coal and offshore gas - will grow demand for imports of capital goods.

However, the two key drivers of growth in throughput at the ports will be demand from hinterland Southern African countries, and the development of the coal mining sector. Mozambique's ports are positioning themselves as entry and exit points for landlocked countries such as Zimbabwe and Malawi, for imports of container goods and exports of agricultural produce, but it is Mozambique's nascent coal mining sector which will fuel the real growth in volumes. Mozambique is set to enjoy...

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Infrastructure

Mozambique Infrastructure

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BMI View: Based on the investment opportunities through its vast natural resources, Mozambique has seen solid growth in 2014, which is expected to continue in 2015 - although at slightly lower rates. This reduction in GDP and construction sector growth is due to general economic headwinds, including a growing budget deficit and public debt, as well as project delays undermining overall investment potentials. We nonetheless expect solid sector growth of around 6% for 2015.

With about USD30bn worth of infrastructure projects in the pipeline currently and 8% of real GDP growth forecast in 2015, the outlook for Mozambique this year is positive. While 2014, however, saw the construction industry grow by almost 10%, we expect rates to slowly decrease in our 2014-2024 forecast period, averaging at 4.3%. For 2015, this means an...

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Mining

Mozambique Mining

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BMI View: Mozambique's heavy dependence on coal mining will leave the mining industry heavily exposure to the current decline in global coal prices which is expected to extent over several quarters. Still, growth in coal production remains high relative to gold output which remains little more than a trickle at present. That said, recent investment in coal mining and supporting infrastructure should see the overall value of the mining sector grow by about 6.5% a year on average through to 2019.

Coal Dependent
Mozambique - Coal and Gold Production
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Oil & Gas

Mozambique Oil & Gas

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BMI View: A key takeaway from recent exploration and appraisal work in Mozambique is growing confidence that operators have proven sufficient amounts of gas to support large LNG export projects. However, FID delays, politics, costs, infrastructure constraints and the ongoing regulatory overhaul are challenges the country will face as it moves from exploration to production. While the timing of first LNG is particularly difficult to pin-point, we expect Mozambique to make its presence felt in the global LNG market by the end of the decade.

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Headline Forecasts (Mozambique 2013-2019)

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Mozambique Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Mozambique's agricultural industry and natural resources contribute to its rapidly expanding economy, which will allow the Mozambican government to continue the development of healthcare infrastructure. The country's healthcare sector - which suffers from shortages of health professionals and poor access to treatment facilities - should begin to show signs of improvement with the help of foreign investment. However, previous risks to market growth remain as high levels of corruption, poor regulatory enforcement and political clashes will work to deter many multinational drug manufactures.

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals: MZN6.86bn...

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Power

Mozambique Power

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BMI View: Mozambique is one of the most attractive markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. The economy is growing rapidly, and the government has liberalised the country's investment laws, providing an enabling environment for exploiting Mozambique's abundant energy the resources. However, barriers to investment remain, including high levels of corruption and low-level political instability.

The outlook for Mozambique's power sector is good. After decades of civil war, the political situation has stabilized, the economy and population are growing rapidly, and the government has liberalized the country's investment laws, providing an enabling environment for the development of the power sector. A number of major projects are in the...

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Shipping

Mozambique Shipping

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The outlook for Mozambique's shipping sector is positive. The country is enjoying a period of robust economic growth of around 7.0%, which we expect to continue over our medium-term forecast period to 2019. An expanding consumer base will drive imports of containerised goods up slowly, while investment projects targeting the country's increasing exploitation of its natural recourses - coal and offshore gas - will grow demand for imports of capital goods. This will drive throughput growth at maritime facilities.

However, the two key drivers of growth in throughput at the ports will be demand from hinterland Southern African countries, and the development of the coal mining sector. Mozambique's ports are positioning themselves as entry and exit points for landlocked countries such as Zimbabwe and Malawi, for imports of container goods and exports of agricultural produce, but it is Mozambique's nascent coal mining sector which will fuel the real...

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Telecommunications

Mozambique Telecommunications

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BMI View : BMI's Q215 Southern Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets in Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius and Namibia. It also contains our estimate of the market data relating to the end of 2014 and an update of our five-year forecasts to 2019 for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors.

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