Our comprehensive assessment of Morocco's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Morocco, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Morocco's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Morocco before your competitors.

Country Risk

Morocco Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manufacturing hub for the European market, coupled with a burgeoning tourism industry, should bode well for Morocco's underlying growth momentum in the next few years.

  • We expect the Moroccan economy to experience weak growth throughout 2014, after having reaped benefits from an agriculture-based recovery in 2013. However, we see growth accelerating over the early months of 2015, due to a strong external environment and improvements in domestic demand and liquidity. We have revised our growth forecasts upward, and see the economy expanding by 2.9% in real terms in 2014 and 4.0% in 2015 (compared to our previous projections of 2.8% and 3.7%).

  • The...

Morocco Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manufacturing hub for the European market and increasingly to West Africa, as well as relative security compared to the rest of the MENA region, will bode well for Morocco's underlying growth momentum in the next few years. The all-important agricultural sector will nevertheless remain exposed to weather, resulting in significant volatility in headline growth.

  • Morocco's foreign policy will remain stable over the coming years, aimed at strengthening its relationship with the EU and the GCC and looking to West Africa for trade and investment opportunities. The Western Sahara issue will remain at the forefront of Rabat's foreign policy agenda, and we do not see...

Morocco Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Morocco Operational Risk

BMI View:

BMI View: Investors in Morocco benefit from the country's well developed supply chains, with key attractions being the low levels of trade bureaucracy and strong connections to international trade routes, which decrease both the time and cost of imports and exports. The demand outlook does, however, dampen Morocco's investor prospects, with the country's supply chains heavily focused towards Europe, where its key trade partners are located. The slow pace of recovery in the eurozone has weakened the country's export growth, although this is expected to improve over the medium-term. Morocco also faces tough regional competition in the logistics sector, with the Gulf states boasting more developed supply chain options and a company with an international trade focus is likely to opt for these over...

Morocco Crime & Security

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BMI View: Morocco is one of the more politically stable countries in the MENA region and businesses will benefit from the relative security that the country offers. There is, however, a pervasive terrorist threat from extremist Islamist groups operating in the region, and although the Moroccan government has enjoyed some success in tackling terrorist cells, with the aid of the US and European states, the risk of a terrorist attack in the country remains elevated. There is limited protection for businesses from financial crime and cyberattacks, increasing the potential for exposure to these risks, though neither is a top concern. Traditional criminal activity is a moderate risk for expatriates, particularly in terms of petty crime, but violent attacks have not targeted foreigners. In comparison with many states in the MENA region, Morocco offers investors a more secure...

Morocco Labour Market

Morocco Logistics

Morocco Trade & Investment

Morocco Industry Coverage (12)

Agribusiness

Morocco Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View: With the exception of the corn sub-sector, all areas of Morocco's agriculture sector are set to enjoy growth through to the end of our forecast period. There is significant potential particularly within the dairy, poultry and sugar industries. Our optimism is bolstered by the government-initiated Green Morocco Plan, which is likely to see increased investment in an effort to reduce the industry's weather-related production risks out to 2020. We believe that the twin strategies of producing high-yield and market-related agriculture, as well as improving the existing water conservation programme, will yield good results in the medium-to-long term.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 2014/15 to 2018/19:...

Autos

Morocco Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: We believe that a combination of low interest rates and a likely pick-up in the construction sector should see the Moroccan new vehicle sales market show steady growth in 2016. We are targeting 3% growth for the sector, with passenger cars set to outperform commercial vehicles.

Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
(2013-2019)
f = BMI forecast. Source: AIVAM, BMI
Key Views:
  • We are now targeting 2.5% growth in PC...

Food & Drink

Morocco Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: As economic growth is forecast to slow down in Morocco in 2016, our short-term expectations for Morocco's food and drink industry remain subdued. We forecast per capita food consumption to expand only by 1.5% in 2015 and perform only a little better in 2016 (expanding by 1.7%). We also expect a moderate acceleration in household consumption on the back of lower international food and oil prices, as well as a recent hike to the minimum wages of both the public and private sectors. Our longer-term view for Morocco's food and drink industry remains positive, as it will benefit from ongoing structural reforms, a promising demographic profile and sizable investment in tourism.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

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Infrastructure

Morocco Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View : We forecast Morocco's construction sector will grow at 4.8% y-o-y in 2016 and average 3.5% over our 10-year forecast. This modest growth will be driven by expansion in the transport, energy and residential sectors. The government's pro-investment policies will continue to attract business from a wide range of foreign firms and multilateral donors.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We maintain our forecast for 4.8% real growth over 2016, 3.5% over the next five years and annual average growth of 3.5% over our full 10-year forecast period. The spike in growth in 2016 comes after more than four quarters of sluggish growth.

  • Foreign investment is flowing into the market. We expect the government to be re-elected in the September 2016 parliamentary elections, which will ensure...

Insurance

Morocco Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View : We see significant potential in North Africa for insurers. However, continued economic constraints will hamper the full development of the sector over the short term, particularly the non-life segment. That being said, strong government impetus in much of the region to augment health insurance density will boost penetration over the medium term. However, we continue to expect life insurance will underperform in comparison to non-life insurance, owing to the disinclination among much of the population to purchase life insurance policies when household budgets are tight....

Morocco Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: We expect solid growth in both the Moroccan and Algerian insurance markets over our current forecast period. Life and non-life premiums are expected to grow steadily, bolstered by wider economic growth and healthy increases in household incomes, which will boost demand for a range of insurance products. Algeria's insurance market is less developed, with limited rates of penetration and density, and will remain dominated by state-led firms in the medium term at least. Morocco's market is more competitive and benefits from the greater presence of local subsidiaries of major multinationals. With premiums growing and both markets becoming increasingly open to competition from abroad, we expect to see further development of new products and distribution platforms and hence increased penetration across both...

Medical Devices

Morocco Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI View: The Moroccan market remains small, both in overall terms and also in per capita terms, leaving potential for further development. The expansion of universal health insurance coverage, increasing expenditure on health services and the development of the private sector will drive one of the world's highest medical device market growth rates.

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Projected Medical Device Market, 2014-2019
Total (USDmn) Per Capita (USD)

Mining

Morocco Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: The mining sector of the Middle East and North Africa will see strong growth in over the coming years, especially given easing sanctions on Iran. With low base effects, governmental will to increase non-oil revenues and significant resources it appears the region is set for strong growth. We highlight Turkey and Northern Iraq as key areas for growth. That said, the region will remain peripheral in the global mining sector as it continues to underperform due to political instability in much of the region.

The key issue in the Middle East's mining sector presently is Iran's ongoing negotiations with Western powers. Our core scenario is for sanctions to be eased from Q116 which will have be a game changer for the country's beleaguered mining industry...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: The Moroccan government's decision to reimburse generic Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) along with the incorporation of students into it medical coverage scheme highlights its commitment to increasing the population's access to healthcare - a positive to drugmakers. However, in the long-term, the uncertainty surrounding drug prices will still remain an issue for drugmakers, hindering the country's attractiveness to drug companies whose portfolios contain high value drugs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: MAD12.52bn (USD1.49bn) in 2014 to MAD13.39bn (USD1.40bn) in 2015; +6.8% in local currency terms and -5.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

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Renewables

Morocco Renewables

BMI View:

BMI View: Morocco will be one of the most attractive markets for renewable energy investment in the MENA region over the next decade, primarily due to its supportive regulatory environment. This is evidenced by a growing project pipeline and strong investor interest in the market, which support our positive 10-year growth forecasts for non-hydro renewables capacity in the country.

Renewables Headline Forecasts (Morocco 2014-2024)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f ...

Telecommunications

Morocco Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : North African telecommunications markets are rapidly evolving from voice-centric markets towards ones driven by data consumption, with mobile broadband being one of the core drivers in all markets. 3G services have been launched with success in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, and the licensing and rollout of 4G services is on track. Success is dependent on the overall macroeconomic situation, with higher purchasing power helping with the development of the telecoms market, while the security situation is always at the forefront in the region. All markets have a mix of public and private operators, though liberalisation is not present in all sectors, and the competition has always driven greater uptake in the region.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • The ADSL market grew above 1mn in Morocco, with total 3G...

Tourism

Morocco Tourism

BMI View:

BMI View: We expect that the strength of the euro against the Moroccan dirham, combined with the increasing number of low-cost airlines and routes between European countries and Morocco, will continue to drive up the number of inbound arrivals in the next five years. However, as the government fails to provide adequate incentives for banks and private developers to invest in the Moroccan tourism industry, the country lags behind in its plans to start developing untapped tourist areas in order to take the pressure off more saturated ones. This includes the development of luxury resorts, which the government is trying to promote to diversify its offering to European tourists and, in the longer term, Asians.

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Key Forecasts (Morocco 2012-2019)

Latest Morocco Articles

  • We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see price...

  • We believe that there is currently disconnect between oil prices and fundam...

  • Price-elastic consumption growth and more limited growth in supply will mai...

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