Our comprehensive assessment of Morocco's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Morocco, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Morocco's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Morocco before your competitors.

Country Risk

Morocco Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manufacturing hub for the European market, coupled with a burgeoning tourism industry, should bode well for Morocco's underlying growth momentum in the next few years.

  • We expect the Moroccan economy to experience weak growth throughout 2014, after having reaped benefits from an agriculture-based recovery in 2013. However, we see growth accelerating over the early months of 2015, due to a strong external environment and improvements in domestic demand and liquidity. We have revised our growth forecasts upward, and see the economy expanding by 2.9% in real terms in 2014 and 4.0% in 2015 (compared to our previous projections of 2.8% and 3.7%).

  • The...

Morocco Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Despite not possessing hydrocarbon wealth, the economy will remain a relative outperformer in North Africa over the medium term. Investor interest in the country as an export-oriented manufacturing hub for the European market and increasingly to West Africa, as well as relative security compared to the rest of the MENA region, will bode well for Morocco's underlying growth momentum in the next few years. The all-important agricultural sector will nevertheless remain exposed to weather, resulting in significant volatility in headline growth.

  • Morocco's foreign policy will remain stable, aimed at strengthening its relationship with the EU and the GCC and looking to West Africa for trade and investment opportunities. The Western Sahara issue will remain at the forefront of Rabat's foreign policy agenda, and we do not see any significant...

Morocco Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Morocco Operational Risk

BMI View:

BMI View: Morocco has the potential to become a trade and investment hub due to its proximity to the eurozone and increasing FDI flows into the country. This view is further bolstered by the fact that Morocco has a relatively strong financial sector, with good banking penetration as well as the high ease of access to both domestic financial services and international financial markets. High tax rates, a complex taxation system, accompanied with numerous bureaucratic regulations and rising levels of corruption do weigh down Morocco's overall score however. Consequently, Morocco scores 54.9 out of 100 for Trade and Investment Risk, placing it in a respectable eighth...

Morocco Crime & Security

BMI View:

BMI View: Morocco is one of the more politically stable countries in the MENA region and businesses will benefit from the relative security that the country offers. There is, however, a pervasive terrorist threat from extremist Islamist groups operating in the region, and although the Moroccan government has enjoyed some success in tackling terrorist cells, with the aid of the US and European states, the risk of an attack in the country remains elevated. There is limited protection for businesses from financial crime and cyberattacks, increasing the potential for exposure to these risks, though neither is a top concern. Traditional criminal activity is a moderate risk for expatriates, particularly in terms of petty crime, but violent attacks have not targeted foreigners. In comparison with many states in the MENA region, Morocco...

Morocco Labour Market

Morocco Logistics

Morocco Trade & Investment

Morocco Industry Coverage (12)

Agribusiness

Morocco Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View: With the exception of the corn sub-sector, all areas of Morocco's agriculture sector are set to enjoy growth through to the end of our forecast period. There is significant potential particularly within the dairy, poultry and sugar industries. Our optimism is bolstered by the government-initiated Green Morocco Plan, which is likely to see increased investment in an effort to reduce the industry's weather-related production risks out to 2020. We believe that the twin strategies of producing high-yield and market-related agriculture, as well as improving the existing water conservation programme, will yield good results in the medium-to-long term.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Wheat production growth 2014/15 to 2018/19:...

Autos

Morocco Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: We believe that a combination of low interest rates and a likely pick-up in the construction sector should see the Moroccan new vehicle sales market show steady growth in 2016. We are targeting 3% growth for the sector, with passenger cars set to outperform commercial vehicles.

Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
(2013-2019)
f = BMI forecast. Source: AIVAM, BMI
Key Views:
  • We are now targeting 2.5% growth in PC...

Food & Drink

Morocco Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: Morocco's food and drink industry will offer only limited investment opportunities throughout our forecast period to 2020. Our consumer outlook has deteriorated as the collapse in agricultural production will negatively affect household incomes.

Food and Drink Spending
(2013-2020)
BMI/National Statistics
  • Our consumer outlook for Morocco has severely deteriorated since last quarter, as we expect agricultural production to collapse amid the drought affecting the country. This will...

Infrastructure

Morocco Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View : We forecast Morocco's construction sector will grow at 4.8% y-o-y in 2016 and average 3.5% over our 10-year forecast. This modest growth will be driven by expansion in the transport, energy and residential sectors. The government's pro-investment policies will continue to attract business from a wide range of foreign firms and multilateral donors.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We maintain our forecast for 4.8% real growth over 2016, 3.5% over the next five years and annual average growth of 3.5% over our full 10-year forecast period. The spike in growth in 2016 comes after more than four quarters of sluggish growth.

  • Foreign investment is flowing into the market. We expect the government to be re-elected in the September 2016 parliamentary elections, which will ensure...

Insurance

Morocco Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View : We see significant potential in North Africa for insurers. However, continued economic constraints will hamper the full development of the sector over the short term, particularly the non-life segment. That being said, strong government impetus in much of the region to augment health insurance density will boost penetration over the medium term. However, we continue to expect life insurance will underperform in comparison to non-life insurance, owing to the disinclination among much of the population to purchase life insurance policies when household budgets are tight....

Morocco Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: Insurance is a rapidly growing industry in both Morocco and Algeria, and both markets are expected to record solid premium growth throughout our forecast period between 2016 and 2020. Much of this growth will be driven by improvements in the wider domestic economies, as unemployment rates fall and household incomes rise, leading to increased disposable income available for spending on a range of insurance products. Developments in terms of the availability and affordability of insurance products will also support growth, as insurers expand bancassurance distribution channels and develop more product lines, including takaful and microinsurance products. Morocco's insurance market will remain the largest of the two, benefiting from a more substantial presence on the part of regional and multinational insurers.

...
Headline Insurance Forecasts (Algeria 2013-2020)

Medical Devices

Morocco Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI View: The Moroccan market remains small, both in overall terms and also in per capita terms, leaving considerable potential for further development if the necessary funding can be secured. The expansion of universal health insurance coverage supported by EU funding, continuing investment in healthcare infrastructure, the development of the private sector and heavy dependence on imports will drive market growth.

...
Projected Medical Device Market, 2014-2019

Mining

Morocco Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: The mining sector of the Middle East and North Africa will see strong growth in over the coming years, especially given easing sanctions on Iran. With low base effects, governmental will to increase non-oil revenues and significant resources it appears the region is set for strong growth. We highlight Turkey and Northern Iraq as key areas for growth. That said, the region will remain peripheral in the global mining sector as it continues to underperform due to political instability in much of the region.

The key issue in the Middle East's mining sector presently is Iran's ongoing negotiations with Western powers. Our core scenario is for sanctions to be eased from Q116 which will have be a game changer for the country's beleaguered mining industry...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Morocco Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: The Moroccan government's increasing efforts to improve healthcare coverage will be the largest driver of pharmaceutical growth in the country over the coming years. Morocco has seen recent improvements towards its regulatory standards; however, the government's long-term commitment to this area remains questionable. Ongoing corruption issues and an unclear future regarding medicine prices in Morocco will result in the country maintaining its status as a challenging market for multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: MAD13.39bn (USD1.37bn) in 2015 to MAD14.33bn (USD1.45bn) in 2016; +7.0% in local currency terms and +5.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter...

Renewables

Morocco Renewables

BMI View:

BMI View: Morocco will be one of the most attractive markets for renewable energy investment in the MENA region over the next decade, primarily due to its supportive regulatory environment. This is evidenced by a growing project pipeline and strong investor interest in the market, which support our positive 10-year growth forecasts for non-hydro renewables capacity in the country.

Renewables Headline Forecasts (Morocco 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f ...

Telecommunications

Morocco Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: The Moroccan telecoms market is in flux, between a mobile segment which looks for profitability and a fixed segment looking for more competition. The success of advanced data services, with 3G a third of the market, has not materialised as higher profits, with subscriber growth also impacted by operators' growing focus on postpaid subscribers, discounting inactive prepaid SIMs. The fixed market continues to be dominated by Maroc Telecom, with the lack of progression in unbundling hindering growth, competition and the development of the market.

Smartphones Demand Driving Data Adoption
Smartphones And Data-Only Mobile Connections (mn), 2013-2015
...

Tourism

Morocco Tourism

BMI View:

BMI View: We expect that the strength of the euro against the Moroccan dirham, combined with the increasing number of low-cost airlines and routes between European countries and Morocco, will continue to drive up the number of inbound arrivals in the next five years. However, as the government fails to provide adequate incentives for banks and private developers to invest in the Moroccan tourism industry, the country lags behind in its plans to start developing untapped tourist areas in order to take the pressure off more saturated ones. This includes the development of luxury resorts, which the government is trying to promote to diversify its offering to European tourists and, in the longer term, Asians.

...
Key Forecasts (Morocco 2012-2019)

Latest Morocco Articles

  • With global growth continuing to stutter amid unconvincing growth performan...

  • A few key themes stand out when comparing BMI's forecasts against Bloomberg...

  • We have upgraded our oil price forecast this month with markets having pric...

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