Our comprehensive assessment of Jamaica's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Jamaica, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Jamaica's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Jamaica before your competitors.
Jamaica Country Risk
We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.
We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) this year.
We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports.
Major Forecast Changes:
Jamaica Country Risk
We believe that most of the English-speaking Caribbean will continue to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters as the US growth story begins to gain ground. That said, even with a modest acceleration in growth, those countries most reliant on tourism and financial services will continue to struggle, as we expect these industries are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels in the foreseeable future. Indeed, while we expect that lower precious metals prices will prompt a weakening macroeconomic outlook for the region's miners, growth will still be stronger than in the predominantly tourism-driven countries.
Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds in the coming years in light of rising debt burdens, fixed exchange rate regimes, and modest growth prospects. These factors, combined with our view that neither the tourism nor...
Jamaica Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Jamaica Food & Drink
BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers are picking up, and growth is stronger in key western states such as the US. That said, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted which limits general investment. We believe that general food consumption growth will be strongest in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. In the Dominican Republic's case, food consumption is coming off of a very low base. Ongoing recession in Puerto Rico, one of the region's most sophisticated markets, is likely to continue in 2015.
Headline Industry Data
Forecast 2015 food consumption growth (local currency):
BMI View: Apparent slow growth in the region during 2015 is generally the result of continued USD strength, rather than structural weaknesses in the insurance sector. While offshore business, principally in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, may steal the headlines, domestic business is typically under-developed in both life and non-life lines. International players barely feature in the region, deterred by small market sizes and the strength of leading regional players who control large portions of most markets.
The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and Canada. The ongoing recovery in both of these should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...
BMI View: Mining sectors across Central America and the Caribbean will see varying growth prospects in 2019. The region has significant untapped mineral potential, yet a range of business environments and operational challenges will lead to uneven growth. Overall, the mining sectors of Colombia and Panama will see the strongest longer-term growth, while Guatemala, and to a lesser extent Honduras, will underperform.
Colombia and Panama will outperform other countries in Central America and the...
BMI View: 2015 seems poised to be a big year for the Caribbean, with a number of major developments that could transform the telecom industries in a number of markets. The CWC acquisition of Columbus International will have a far-reaching regional impact in the broadband internet and pay-TV markets, which remain underdeveloped and ripe for growth. New players are expected in the Bahamas and Trinidad & Tobago, and new regulators in Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Barbados and Haiti could lead to huge improvements in the business environment. Agreements between the US and Cuba have shocked the world. Cuba represents the most attractive market in the Caribbean in terms of total size and growth opportunities, however, we don't expect to see this play out. Nonetheless, there will be massive interest from lots of international players....