Our comprehensive assessment of Jamaica's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Jamaica, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Jamaica's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Jamaica before your competitors.
Jamaica Country Risk
Bermuda's prolonged recession continued into 2014, and we now expect this economic contraction to continue over the coming years. We expect that an international crackdown on offshore financial centres such as Bermuda will lead to a decline in financial services activity, one of the key contributors to the island's economy. Although tourism will rise, it will not be enough to offset tempered insurance activities.
Bermuda's current account will remain in surplus over the course of our 10-year forecast period, though the surplus will decrease to 10.4% of GDP by 2024, down from 17.4% in 2014, in line with our projections for slowing exports of tourism services and secular decline in off-shore finance.
Despite poor growth prospects, Bermuda will remain politically stable over the next 10 years owing to the...
Jamaica Country Risk
We believe that the English-speaking Caribbean will continue to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters as US growth continues. A strengthening US consumer will boost tourism to the region, driving growth in tourism-dependent economies. Financial services will continue to struggle due to tightening financial regulation in developed economies, while lower precious metals prices will weaken the macroeconomic outlook for the region's miners. That said, growth will remain stronger in the region's mining-driven economies than in its predominantly tourism-driven countries.
Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds in the coming years in light of rising debt burdens, fixed exchange rate regimes, and modest growth prospects. These factors, combined with our view that financial services sectors will see a significant...
Jamaica Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Jamaica Food & Drink
BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers pick up and growth becomes stronger in key markets like the US. The large decline in the price of oil over the last year will boost the region's consumer spending, as the Caribbean is a large net oil importer. Inflation will remain low, which will help food consumption growth over the coming years. That said, many regional economies continue to be heavily indebted, which limits general investment...
BMI View: Currency weakness will continue to plague the dollar terms returns of many of the Caribbean insurance sectors covered in this report. Offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, amounting to around USD45bn annually, dwarf the domestic sectors in the region. Health insurance, an underdeveloped line of business, is likely to outperform in many of these markets over the five-year forecast period.
The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The ongoing recovery in both major North American markets should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...
BMI View: Mining sectors across Central America and the Caribbean will see varying growth prospects in 2019. The region has significant untapped mineral potential, yet a range of business environments and operational challenges will lead to uneven growth. Overall, the mining sectors of Colombia and Panama will see the strongest longer-term growth, while Guatemala, and to a lesser extent Honduras, will underperform.
Colombia and Panama will outperform other countries in Central America and the Caribbean in terms...
BMI View: Digicel's eventual initial public offering (IPO) plans bode well for the future of the Caribbean regional telecommunications market as additional funds raised in the initial stock offering will allow investment into next-generational networks and help expand the market further. While IPO plans are presently on hold at the eleventh hour, it also demonstrates the saturated nature of the telecoms industry in the Caribbean, with revenue and subscriber growth flattening. A key downside risk is the company's exposure to weak consumer spending trends in its core markets, an issue that could undermine investor confidence further down the line. Haiti and Cuba represent the largest organic growth opportunities in the region, as both are...
BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.7% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets will experience growth in 2016.
We hold a positive outlook on the Caribbean tourism market in 2016, with growth of 2.7% marking an improvement after the lower growth rate of 1.7% in 2015. This arrivals growth is led by strong arrivals from North America and particularly from Europe. European arrivals declined in 2015 and a return to growth in 2016 will bring benefits in terms of tourist expenditure, as well as encouraging more longer-term investment. Moreover, the rebound in European tourism to the Caribbean underlines the resilience of the region's market, which remains a highly popular destination despite its relative expense....