In-depth country-focused analysis on Jamaica's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight


Our comprehensive assessment of Jamaica's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Jamaica, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Jamaica's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Jamaica before your competitors.

Jamaica Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • We expect that Bermuda will experience moderate economic growth over the coming years, supported by the construction and tourism sectors. However, the island faces several notable risks to this forecast, including a crackdown on offshore financial centres such as Bermuda in the wake of the 'Panama Papers' scandal, a slowdown in the US economy, a loss of preferred EU market access following the 'Brexit' vote and the re-opening of Cuba to US visitors.

  • Bermuda's current account will remain in surplus over the course of our 10-year forecast period, though the surplus will decrease to 10.4% of GDP by 2024, down from 17.4% in 2014, in line with our projections for slowing exports of tourism services and secular decline in off-shore finance.

  • Despite moderate growth prospects, Bermuda will remain...

Jamaica Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • We believe that the English-speaking Caribbean will continue to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters as US growth continues. A strengthening US consumer will boost tourism to the region, driving growth in tourism-dependent economies. Financial services will continue to struggle due to tightening financial regulation in developed economies, while lower precious metals prices will weaken the macroeconomic outlook for the region's miners. That said, growth will remain stronger in the region's mining-driven economies than in its predominantly tourism-driven countries.

  • Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds in the coming years in light of rising debt burdens, fixed exchange rate regimes, and modest growth prospects. These factors, combined with our view that financial services sectors will see a significant...

Jamaica Industry Coverage (6)

Jamaica Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers pick up and growth becomes stronger in key markets like the US. The Dominican Republic will outperform other regional markets over the next five years. Nonetheless, small consumer bases will limit long-term investment opportunities, especially in the food retail sector.

Dominican Republic The Regional Outperformer
Select Countries - Food Sales (% chg y-o-y, USD terms)

Jamaica Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: Currency weakness will continue to plague the dollar terms returns of many of the Caribbean insurance sectors covered in this report. Offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, amounting to around USD45bn annually, dwarf the domestic sectors in the region. Health insurance, an underdeveloped line of business, is likely to outperform in many of these markets over the five-year forecast period.

The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The ongoing recovery in both major North American markets should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...

Jamaica Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: Long constrained by a challenging economic and business environment, Jamaica's insurance sector is under-developed by most standards. Except in the context of the Caribbean and Central America, it is also small in absolute terms. Nevertheless, it is apparent that the stabilisation of the economy - thanks to the government's successful implementation of an IMF-backed economic reform programme - has had a very positive effect. In both the main segments, we have had to adjust our estimates of premiums for 2015. We have also increased our forecasts for 2016-2020. In the life segment, the key change is an improvement in confidence on the part of households and businesses that can afford to buy insurance. In the non-life segment, the key change is the boost to motor vehicle insurance that comes from higher car sales.


Jamaica Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: Mining sectors across Central America and the Caribbean will see varying growth prospects in 2020. The region has significant untapped mineral potential, yet a range of business environments and operational challenges will lead to uneven growth.

Select Countries - Mining Industry Value
2014e 2015e 2016f...

Jamaica Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: Increasing competition in the Caribbean telecoms markets has potential to enhance innovation and improve customer choice. The announcement in May 2016 that Jamaica had launched a third mobile operator, increases the prospects of competition in that market. Jamaica's mobile market is currently a duopoly between Digicel and LIME. Although the arrival of a third mobile operator would help to shake up the Trinidad & Tobago mobile market, we still expect the process to take years to play out, as licence fees are agreed,...

Jamaica Tourism

BMI View:

BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will increase 4.5% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets except Belize will experience growth. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 4.5% in 2016, to 42.3mn, reflecting a slight moderation from growth of 5.2% in 2015. We expect Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 5....

Latest Jamaica Articles

Latest Jamaica Blogs

  • Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a new special repor...

  • The Jamaican economy is one of the few in the Caribbean region that could e...

Latest Jamaica Podcasts

  • Chronic underinvestment in Venezuela's oil sector and mounting economi...


Download PDF

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.