Content type

Iraq’s Oil Exports Take A Hit As Negotiations With Turkiye Drag On

Oil & Gas / Iraq / Tue 25 Jul, 2023

Key View

  • We have revised down our forecast for Iraq’s crude production for 2023 as the halt in exports via Turkiye approaches its fourth month, with no signs that crude flows will resume anytime soon.
  • The resolution to the crisis continues to rest on negotiations between Ankara and Baghdad, with internal deals reached between the Kurdistan
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OPEC+ Cuts The Latest Hindrance To Iraq's Oil Outlook

Oil & Gas / Iraq / Mon 17 Apr, 2023

Key View

  • OPEC and OPEC+ have announced a new set of production cuts, which inform our downward revision of our 2023 oil production forecast from 0.5% to -3.2% y-o-y growth.
  • The cuts will halt Iraq's long-term ambitions of raising its oil production levels from an average of 4.6mn b/d in 2022 to 8.0mn b/d in 2027.
  • The disruption to Iraq’s
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Iraq's External Surplus Will Remain In Double-Digits In 2023

Country Risk / Iraq / Fri 09 Dec, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions we forecast that slower growth in oil exports and a steady demand for imports will cause Iraq’s external surplus to narrow from an estimated 20.7% of GDP in 2022 to 14.2% in 2023.
  • Even so, the country’s double-digit surplus (third in a row) will continue to boost foreign currency reserves, providing the
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Government Formation Lowers Iraqi Political Risk

Country Risk / Iraq / Mon 07 Nov, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions we believe that the new Iraqi government will likely improve the country’s policymaking and security environment, boding well for economic activity.
  • We suspect the new government is the result of a power-sharing agreement between Iraq’s main political stakeholders, which will facilitate the passing of
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New Iraqi Government Will Unlikely Address Structural Issues

Country Risk / Iraq / Mon 17 Oct, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we think that the recent election of a new President and appointment of a Prime Minister will lead to the formation of a new government earlier than our previous expectations.
  • We thus revised up our Short-Term Political Risk Index score from 30.1 to 31.8, reflecting a slight improvement in policymaking, as we
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