Indonesia is South East Asia’s largest economy and holds a number of investment opportunities. The manufacturing, oil and gas, and infrastructure sectors all represent attractive options, while portfolio investment has traditionally been a key source of capital inflows. Businesses are able to make use of Indonesia’s strategic location on major global shipping lanes, which keeps import and export costs low. However, investors cannot ignore the country’s challenging business environment.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in Indonesia, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 23 of Indonesia’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our expert research teams. We aim to keep you one step ahead, so you can operate with confidence in Indonesia.

Country Risk

Indonesia Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Despite fears that Prabowo Subianto's red and white coalition would look to block Jokowi's policy-making efforts, the President was able to push through sweeping fuel subsidy reductions in both November and December 2014 on his own accord. This will greatly reduce the government's subsidy bill and improve its fiscal spending mix, and is also a positive sign in terms of Jokowi's reform intentions going forward.

  • We have downgraded Indonesia's real GDP growth forecast in 2015 to 5.5% (from 6.0% previously), as we note that tight monetary policy will keep a lid on investment activity throughout H115. That said, this rate still implies an acceleration from 2014's estimated 5.1% growth rate.

  • The government's subsidy savings, which are estimated...

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Indonesia Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Indonesia Operational Risk

Indonesia Crime & Security

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Foreign workers and expatriates in Indonesia face a higher risk from terrorism and criminal activity than in many other countries in the region. Foreigners are specifically targeted by terrorist groups and could fall victim to bombings, shootings and kidnappings. Although violent crime is not common, gangs retain some degree of power and influence, and foreign workers and businesses will be at risk from general crimes such as petty theft, robbery and credit card fraud. Consequently, Indonesia is ranked lowly in BMI's Crime and Security Risk Index for the Asia region, in 21 st place out of 30 states, with a score of 44.1 out of 100. The country's only main advantage in this regard is its large army, which improves its international security position.

Membership of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), a history of successful bilateral dispute management and a powerful army mean that the risk of...

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Indonesia Labour Market

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Indonesia performs poorly with regards to Labour Market risks, with low basic skills levels and high costs of employment. Low secondary and tertiary educational enrolment rates are also significant impediments to the development of a workforce capable of skilled, technical labour, which may result in having to import skilled labour, incurring high employment costs. Indonesia's overall score for Labour Market Risk is 43.5 out of 100, putting it 20 th regionally, between Samoa and Myanmar (on 44.8 and 45.6 points respectively.

Availability of labour risks are high for Indonesia, and the worst implication stemming from this is the higher wages for potential employers, particularly in skilled professions. A large proportion of Indonesia's workforce lack the skills and literacy to offer investors seeking anything but the most basic manual work. This is reflected in the country's low score of 44.9 out of 100 for availability of labour....

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Indonesia Logistics

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Indonesia's poorly developed logistics network is one of the major barriers to economic growth in the country. The difficulties of constructing and maintaining infrastructure over a vast archipelago of 17,000 islands means that the transport and utilities network remains severely underdeveloped on most islands apart from Java. This will pose risks to business operations in the form of supply chain delays and utilities shortages, as growth in key industries such as mining and agriculture places a greater strain on the logistics network. On the other hand, maritime trade connectivity is improved due to the country's location close to vital global shipping lanes, and major transhipment hubs in Malaysia and Singapore. This has significantly reduced the costs of importing and exporting. Consequently, Indonesia is placed in the middle of the pack regionally in the overall BMI Logistics Risk Index, in 14th place out of 30 Asian...

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Indonesia Trade & Investment

Indonesia Industry Coverage (23)

Agribusiness

Indonesia Agribusiness

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BMI View: Overall, we hold an optimistic outlook on Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, palm oil and cocoa. While we believe the government's goal to reach self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 is attainable, we are less confident about other commodities such as sugar and corn. We also highlight that the country's aim to become the second largest coffee producer in the world by 2015 is unrealistic. Much of our scepticism relates to the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. We believe the shift from raw commodity exports to refined exports (especially for palm oil and cocoa) will warrant more public and private investment in order for the raw inputs industry to keep pace with downstream industries. Investments by Wilmar,...

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Autos

Indonesia Autos

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Indonesian auto sales have entered into a tailspin over the past few months, with their decline exacerbated by the recent hike in fuel prices in November 2014. While we remain optimistic on 2015 and forecast a recovery for this year, we are tempering our growth forecasts as we see demand conditions remaining soft in the coming months. We forecast vehicle sales to grow 4.3% in 2015 versus 9.6% previously.

The two salient factors, which have eroded consumers' purchasing power and crimped private consumption, are high inflation and elevated interest rates. Our Country Risk team expects this to persist for much of 2015 and this will continue to take a toll on passenger car demand. However, as the market gradually absorbs the rise in fuel prices, we see consumer demand picking up in the latter half of the year; we forecast car sales to rise by 4.0% in 2015.

On the commercial vehicle (CV) side, government bureaucracy...

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Commercial Banking

Indonesia Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

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Consumer Electronics

Indonesia Consumer Electronics

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BMI View: The Indonesian consumer electronics has the potential to be a medium-term outperformer due to broad based economic growth, low device penetration rates and vendor investment in local presence over recent years. However, in the short term the market continues to be disrupted by rupiah depreciation against the US dollar which was a squeeze on demand in 2014, and will continue into 2015, albeit to a lesser extent. Nonetheless, we have a bullish outlook for consumer electronics spending growth in Indonesia over the medium term to 2019. There is however potential downside from...

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Defence & Security

Indonesia Defence & Security

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BMI View:  Indonesia benefits from economic, geographic and resource scale, giving the country a substantial advantage over its neighbours. While the co-operative stability of the ASEAN era has in some regards diminished the relevance of this strength, it provides Indonesia with the opportunity to become a key leader for the region. Boasting strong relations with the US, China and key neighbours, Indonesia's regional importance will continue to grow. Successes such as the Komodo multilateral military exercises will boost Jakarta's role in regional affairs.

On the whole, Jakarta has good relations with Beijing. However, Indonesia has at times expressed concern over some Chinese activities in the South China Sea, and Beijing must tread carefully in order to remain on good terms with South East Asia's key state. Indeed, Indonesian pressure will be critical in ensuring...

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Food & Drink

Indonesia Food & Drink

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BMI View: While we believe that Indonesia's real GDP growth is likely to accelerate to 5.5% in 2015 from an estimated 5.1% in 2014 on the back of improving terms of trade and fiscal efficiency, we note that broad structural reforms will be necessary in order to return to the 6.0%+ growth rates that the government is targeting. However, with a positive demographic outlook that will make the country increasingly attractive in terms of manufacturing, real GDP growth should be relatively broad-based across the archipelago. With food, drink and retail sector investments likely to be more forthcoming in the coming years, dynamism in consumer-facing sectors will consequently remain buo...

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Freight Transport

Indonesia Freight Transport

Information Technology

Indonesia Information Technology

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BMI View: The depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar was a small drag on IT market growth, but caused no significant disruption, a state of affairs we expect to be maintained into 2015. We again expect the drag of rupiah depreciation to be outweighed by the upside from strong economic growth, a low PC penetration rate, enterprise and public service modernisation and an emerging middle class. As such we identify retail hardware, enterprise software and cloud computing as medium-term growth opportunities. However, there is short-to-medium term downside if the Indonesian growth story is derailed by regional or global economic...

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Infrastructure

Indonesia Infrastructure

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BMI View : Growth in Indonesia's construction and infrastructure sectors will accelerate in 2015, underpinned by political stability and the full implementation of the land acquisition bill. However, we maintain a conservative near-term outlook on the sector due to non-conducive monetary conditions and political headwinds. With President Joko Widodo's vision of establishing Indonesia as a 'maritime axis', transport infrastructure will remain in focus, particularly the development of ports.

Key Trends And Developments

  • We remain conservative over the outlook for Indonesia's construction and infrastructure sectors, although we do expect...

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Insurance

Indonesia Insurance

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BMI View : The under-penetrated nature of the insurance sector offers tremendous growth potential for firms over the coming years, bolstered by the country's young demographics and rising middle class consumers. Furthermore, the retention of the 80% foreign ownership cap in the sector will allow for greater M&A activity to take place in the next few years as more foreign firms look to enter the market.

Indonesia's insurance market offers enormous potential for growth. With a population of around 250mn (expected to increase to 264mn by 2018) and low insurance penetration rates, many local and international insurers have recognised the opportunity and aggressively expanded into the Indonesian insurance market in recent years. We expect steady economic growth to underpin the expansion of the insurance market over the coming years.

In 2015, we forecast...

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Medical Devices

Indonesia Medical Devices

Mining

Indonesia Mining

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BMI View: The export ban on raw minerals will significantly impact production growth and hamper investment for Indonesia's mining industry. We do not expect any moderation of the ban in 2015 as the government seeks to attract foreign direct investment and add value to its mining sector. A possible moderation on the ban on bauxite ore is still on the cards for 2016.

With the boom years in commodity prices behind us, we believe more miners in Indonesia will be forced to put the brakes on investment over the coming quarters. The export ban on raw minerals will significantly impact financial growth in Indonesia's mining sector. In January 2014, the government implemented the ban on unprocessed minerals, in order to stimulate smelter construction and increase mineral export value. Till this date, the government has maintained its strict ban on bauxite and nickel ore. For nickel, it...

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Oil & Gas

Indonesia Oil & Gas

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BMI View: We have upgraded our consumption forecasts based on expectations that the election of reform-minded Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo as president would have a positive impact on Indonesia's business environment - which has hitherto limited the country from maximising its below-ground potential - and its economy. A weaker oil price environment will also stimulate consumption despite subsidy cuts. Our forecasts could surprise to the upside if Jokowi is more successful than expected in battling entrenched interests in the oil and gas industry to revamp its operating environment.

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Headline Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019)

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Petrochemicals

Indonesia Petrochemicals

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Indonesia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Generic drugs sales in Indonesia will continue to see significant growth as they remain favoured by both low per capita pharmaceutical spending and inadequate intellectual property protection in the country. This is further reinforced by a growing chronic disease burden led by cardiovascular diseases and the roll out of universal healthcare in the country, which will help improve access to medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: IDR69,462bn (USD5.85bn) in 2014 to IDR75,497bn(USD5.95bn) in 2015; +8.7% growth in local currency terms and 1.6% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: IDR327,811bn (USD27.62bn) in 2014 to IDR375,392bn (USD29....

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Power

Indonesia Power

Real Estate

Indonesia Real Estate

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BMI View:   Although we are forecasting no growth in rental rates in 2015 or 2016, we are optimistic on the Indonesian commercial real estate market's outlook for the longer term. Favourable demographic trends will boost demand within the country, driving development particularly in retail real estate. Meanwhile, the increasingly developed economy, international interest and closer integration with the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will increase Indonesia's attractiveness to foreign investors.

We believe that Indonesia's economy will begin to pick up pace, with real GDP growth set to hit 6.0% in 2015, rising to 6.5% by the end of our forecast period in 2018. This growth will be supported by increasing consumer spending within the country, as well as an improving balance of payments situation. Although a strengthening...

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Renewables

Indonesia Renewables

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BMI View: Our bullish outlook for renewable energy in Indonesia is based on a number of key fundamentals. These include the pressing need to meet growing electricity demand across the country (particularly in off-grid remote areas), the government's strong commitment to diversifying the power mix through the adoption of renewable energy and Indonesia's significant geothermal and solar energy potential - stemming from favourable geographic characteristics.

Growth will occur across the spectrum of renewable energy technologies in 2015, with opportunities for project developers and equipment manufacturers in solar, geothermal, wind and biomass energy. Our long-term outlook for the Indonesian renewable energy sector remains bullish as we continue to see solid fundamentals for growth. We forecast non-hydropower renewable generation to...

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Retail

Indonesia Retail

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BMI View: Rising disposable incomes combined with the ongoing development of modern retail formats are all expected to result in a strong boost to the Indonesian retail sector over the next few years. We remain especially positive about the future growth prospects for communications, health and personal care; however, we expect by far the highest proportion of the household budget to be spent on essential items such as food and drink throughout our forecast period.

Indonesia's economy has flourished in recent years and this has contributed significantly to growth in household spending as well as the general advancements seen within the retail sector. We are forecasting growth to remain moderate during 2015 at 5.5%, rising steadily to 6.3% during 2016. While we believe the Indonesian economy shows signs of...

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Shipping

Indonesia Shipping

Telecommunications

Indonesia Telecommunications

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BMI View: The Indonesian market saw a major development in December 2014, with the deployment and launch of 4G LTE networks by the three largest mobile operators, Telkomsel, Indosat and XL Axiata. Although the outlook for the technology will be limited by the low spending power of most Indonesians and the high price of LTE tariffs and smartphones, it represents a step forward in the development of the market. 3G will be the favoured form of mobile broadband throughout our forecast period, but will continue to make up a minority of mobile subscriptions while the number of competitors remains too high, leading to a significant prominence of low-value prepaid subscribers. Moves towards tower sharing will help reduce the burden of this hyper-competitive environment, and could...

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Tourism

Indonesia Tourism

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The future is looking bright for Indonesia's tourism market, with healthy growth forecast across inbound and outbound tourism, industry value and tourism-related expenditure. The government is highly supportive of the industry and is investing heavily in improving the country's transport infrastructure network in order to improve safety and access. Concerns remain, however, regarding the viability of the foreign investment environment and high crime rates.

The Indonesian government is increasingly supportive of the tourism industry, and following elections in 2014 it set up the first stand-alone Ministry of Tourism - tasked with promoting and expanding tourism in Indonesia. The new tourism board recently announced it is targeting annual tourism arrivals of 20mn by 2019. New measures, such as the removal of the USD35 visa on arrival for visitors from Australia, Japan, China, South Korea and Russia from early 2015 will certainly help to boost...

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Water

Indonesia Water

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Overall, we take a positive outlook with regard to the future of Indonesia's water sector as infrastructure and legislative improvements are undertaken. However, the sanitation sector remains extremely underdeveloped at present.

Compared with other sectors such as agriculture, electricity generation and housing developments, the water sector has always been a lower priority for the Indonesian government. It is primarily for this reason that the water sector remains underdeveloped. The situation has been exacerbated by attempts to decentralise responsibility for service in the sector and the lack of resources and operating capacity. However, with strong government support and ambitious targets, in addition to rising industrial water demand, we expect...

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