Greece

In-depth country-focused analysis on Greece's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Greece

Our comprehensive assessment of Greece's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Greece, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Greece's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Greece before your competitors.

Country Risk

Greece Country Risk

Greece Industry Coverage (16)

Agribusiness

Greece Agribusiness

Autos

Greece Autos

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Passenger car sales in Greece increased 21.3% in 2014, to 71,218 units. BMI attributes this growth over the year to low base effects and pent-up demand in the market following years of sustained declines. Indeed, the recovery of the country's autos market has continued despite sustained weakness in the country's economy.

Commercial vehicle (CV) sales in Greece increased 40.5% in 2014. BMI believes that this respite comes on the back of low base effects from a weak 2013 and pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines. We expect these dynamics to buoy the segment somewhat despite our bearish view on the broader macro picture, and this has informed our expectation for sustained growth in total CV sales in 2015. The Greek economy remains depressed, with national output far below pre-crisis levels. Record high unemployment, fiscal austerity and weak credit growth will...

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Commercial Banking

Greece Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

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Defence & Security

Greece Defence & Security

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BMI View:  The report discusses Greece's strategic situation, including its fractious relationship with Turkey, its relations with NATO and other European nations, and its global relations and participation in military operations around the world. In terms of procurement, the report examines Greece's current defence programmes, planned acquisitions and future procurement aspirations in light of the country's economic crisis.

BMI expects Greece to spend USD6bn on defence in 2014. On average, between 2011 and 2013, Greece spent USD6.2bn annually on defence. Spending has progressively declined as the Greek economy has contracted and the government has sought to bring public spending under control. We expect Greece to spend less on defence between 2015 and 2019, spending an average of USD5.5bn. By 2019 we expect Greece to be spending USD5.6bn on...

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Food & Drink

Greece Food & Drink

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BMI View: Private consumption looks set to be the main driver of real GDP growth over 2015 and 2016, adding an average of 0.7 percentage points to growth according to our forecasts. Although an improvement, this will mainly reflect base effects from extremely weak consumer spending in years gone by. It also assumes consumer confidence should improve in 2016 after the government agrees a bailout renegotiation with its creditors, ending the uncertainty surrounding Greece's continued position in the eurozone currency union.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption = 0.1%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014-2019 = +0.8%.

  • 2015 alcoholic drink value sales = -1.3%; forecast CAGR 2014-2019 = +0.1%.

  • 2015 soft drink value...

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Freight Transport

Greece Freight Transport

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Freight Demand Picking Up Pace In 2015

Looking at specific Greek transport modes, the main feature of 2015 will be faster growth compared to 2014. All modes will experience cargo volume expansion in a range of roughly 2.0% to 6.0%, ahead of the general rate of expansion experienced in the slowly recovering Greek economy. As in recent years, the best performer will be the Port of Piraeus, lifted by new investment and its role as a European gateway. Foreign trade growth will accelerate to 3.5%, giving a positive boost to freight demand after years of contraction.

The Greek economy is recovering, but the transition seems to be from deep recession to weak growth with continuing downside risks. We now expect GDP to gain 1.2% in 2015, up from an estimate of 0.2% positive growth in 2014, which itself came after six consecutive years of contraction (2008-2013). The problem is that the growth drivers are...

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Infrastructure

Greece Infrastructure

Insurance

Greece Insurance

Medical Devices

Greece Medical Devices

Oil & Gas

Greece Oil & Gas

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BMI View: We have a negative outlook for the Greek upstream sector as the nebulous fiscal and regulatory environment at a time of low oil prices will dent industry interest in the licensing round due in July 2015. Greece's importance in the regional oil and gas sector lies in the scale of its downstream and we forecast exports of fuels to grow in 2015 as the domestic market contracts for another year. Domestically, jet fuels consumption will experience the strongest growth according to our forecasts as a result of a booming tourism sector.

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Headline Forecasts (Greece 2013-2019)
2013

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Since the election of the Syriza party in early 2015, Greece has seen considerable escalation in both political and economic uncertainty. This will limit the implementation of reform in the health sector and exacerbate the already high operational risks borne by drugmakers. While BMI believes that Greece will eventually reach a settlement with international creditors and remain in the eurozone, the uncertainty during the interim will be a costly obstacle to the country's economic recovery and to the development of the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors over our...

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Real Estate

Greece Real Estate

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BMI View:  With the Greek economy back on track for growth, we expect an improvement of the wider macroeconomic situation to also support a recovery of the commercial real estate market. Although there are several positive indicators especially for the office and retail real estate segments, the economic recovery remains highly fragile and uncertainty continues to dominate the market atmosphere. We therefore expect rental rates to remain largely stable with slight positive trends in the abovementioned two sectors, while the demand for industrial real estate space will remain subdued as the Greek industry continues to struggle.

The commercial real estate sector closely mirrors the general economic trends of the country and as such has suffered significantly in the Greek economic crisis. Hopes are raised as 2014 is expected to be the first year since...

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Renewables

Greece Renewables

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BMI View: After a few years of impressive growth, the Greek non-hydro renewables industry experienced a sharp slowdown in 2014, largely on account of regulatory changes, introduced under the New Deal in mid-2014. While several recent project announcements highlight industry potential, the regulatory challenges will continue hindering future expansion.

Measures to address the deficit of the country's power regulator LAGIE's deficit (which funds renewable energy), under the New Deal, introduced in April 2014, included reduction of FiTs, most steeply for solar photovoltaic (PV) plants, an increase to the renewables levy charged to all consumers (residential, commercial and industrial) and caps to...

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Shipping

Greece Shipping

Telecommunications

Greece Telecommunications

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BMI View : We continue to hold a largely bearish view towards the Greek telecoms sector as a whole, with healthy returns on investment precluded by its challenging economic climate. This is most reflected in the mobile market, which is highly saturated, recording growth of just 0.2% over the course of 2014. Other concerning trends point to the shift away from postpaid to lower value prepaid subscriptions, meaning consumers are spending less. The three major operators have all launched 4G services as of March 2015, but in this environment the outlook is less than optimal. Convergence remains the trend in the wireline sector with Vodafone looking to acquire Forthnet ...

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Tourism

Greece Tourism

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BMI View: We believe that short term prospects in the Greek tourism sector are likely to be adversely effected by the combative stance being taken by the Greek Government in its dealings with the eurozone and the terms of the bailout for the Greek economy. Ultimately if this leads to a Greek exit from the Euro, if not the EU, the country would be likely to return to the Drachma, hugely devalued against the Euro. After the inevitable fallout from such a move, Greece's attraction as a low cost holiday destination could materially benefit the tourism sector, to which the government would look to lead any economic recovery.

At the time of writing (early May 2015), there are growing concerns that negotiations between the Greek Government and the EU/ IMF over the terms of its economic bailout are reaching an impasse with a very real possibility that Greece will default...

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